myInvestment Paradise: 手套业

大马手套业的历史：

政府在1980年发出超过450张license
先进的生产科技和日益高涨的乳胶价格为手套领域带来了整合，一些规模较小和缺乏竞争力的制造商遭实力强大的制造商并吞，从90年代初期的200家剧减至40家。
值得一提的是当时很多手套都是一些较大型种植业者的子公司，可以轻易取得原料，可是他们都无法生存下来

现今的大马手套业：

过去十五年来，大马一直都是胶手套出口大国，仅仅去年就贡献了1000亿只手套到180个国家
1998年到2009年之间，大马的出口每一年都取得骄人的双位数成长
2009年全年胶手套出口总额RM72亿。2011仅仅上半年，大马的胶手套出口额就达到了RM40.7亿
2010年全球需求量约为1550亿只，而且每年成长8％－12％。大马在这市场就占了约63％。单单手套巨头Topglove,Supermax,Kossan,Hartelega,YTY,Adventa,Latexx就控制了约60％。
大部分美国大型手套生产商都不想投资扩充业务，反之把生产工作外包，大马手套公司将受惠。
Malaysian rubber glove exports are expected to increase to more than RM10 billion and remain the largest contributor to the total exports of rubber products in 2011. Malaysia as the leading exporter of rubber gloves in the world commands about 60% of the global market share.

手套业展望：

报告显示，2005年首半年共有370亿只手套出口，相较于2004年首半年的242亿只手套，这也意味着按年比较取得52.8％的增长。此外，即用即丢的天然乳胶手套在大马的市场占率从2004年的55％增加至2005年的62％。从大马进口即用即丢的天然乳胶医药手套于2004年取得13.5％的增长，相较于美国市场进口的增长仅占0.8％。

In 2010, rubber gloves continued to contribute significantly to the total exports of rubber products, registering RM8.9 billion in export value or 69% of the total value of all rubber products exported.

-->大马的手套出口自1998－2009皆取得健康的双位数成长。2011年上半年大马总共出口RM4.7billion的手套，2009年的全年出口总值是RM7.2billion。

Latex-focused OEMs are expanding their nitrile production. In 2011, the country’s top seven glove makers, namely TOLGLOVE, SUPERMAX, KOSSAN, HARTA, LATEXX, ADVENTA and YTY which control around 60% of the world examination gloves market, are expected to increase their new capacity by an estimated 17 billion pieces and almost all were earmarked for nitrile production. This represents a supply surplus of six billion pieces of gloves in 2011, on the assumption that global demand grows by 8% Y-O-Y this year.

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[Public Listed Magazine October 2011]

原料：

大马的每月橡胶数据 http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=902&lang=en
乳胶一般上约占成本的60％－70％
泰国，印尼，马来西亚，印度，越南和中国等国生产了全世界天然胶的大约92％。
每1000只手套的天然胶成本大约为RM2-RM2.50 (Year2005)
过去20年乳胶价格：

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=rubber&months=180&currency=myr

根据2010年11月LMC国际报告指出，由于过度强调油棕业，大马在过去10年在全球天然胶的市场份额只有约9.2％

既然乳胶是制造手套的主要原料，那我们有必要明白什么因素左右乳胶价格的走势：

三大天然胶生产国泰国（大约95％集中在泰南，2010：3,252,000吨），马来西亚（2010：939,000吨），印尼（2010：2,829,000吨）的收成和再翻种。亚洲其他国家2010年的生产可参考下图：

－印尼(3,445,000)，泰国(2,761,000)和马来西亚(1,019,000)共占了亚洲种植地的69％，大约7,225,000ha。
－泰国（95％），马来西亚（90％），印尼（85％）的生产都来自小园主，而中国，越南和柬埔寨则由国家控制。
－2010年全球生产大约10,291,000吨天然胶，其中亚洲就占了大约93％。
－虽然印尼的种植面积使最大的，但是泰国（1,720kg/ha)的效率远远超过印尼（987kg/ha)。印度的生产效率是最高的（1,784kg/ha)，而且领先了将近20年。中国（1,143kg/ha），越南（1,720kg/ha）。

泰南水灾

落葉季節 (Wintering season)

汽车／轮胎业的需求左右树胶价格。近年来尤其中国和印度的强劲需求促成树胶价格不断创新高。以下的数据显示轮胎大约消耗了全世界63％－70％左右的树胶。

"63% of total Natural Rubber consumption is by the Tyre sector, balance by rubber based non-tyre industries." Source: ATMA http://www.atmaindia.org/Overview.htm

"70% of the world rubber consumption goes into the tyre industry." Source: The Rubber Economist Ltd http://www.therubbereconomist.com/The_Rubber_Economist/Vehicle_and_tyre.html

－中国在2006年占了全球乳胶使用量的20％。2010年消耗量突破3.5million吨,占全球使用量的1/3，可是中国每年只生产687,000吨，所以是非常依赖进口的。
－2010年，中国汽车出口达18.26million辆，按年增加32.44％。销售则达18.06辆，按年增加32.37％。轮胎业业蓬勃发展，出口达776.34million,按年增加19.82％。
－中国的气候并不适合栽种橡胶，因此非常依赖进口。2010年中国进口1.86million吨乳胶，按年增加8.8％，进口值达USD5.67billion,按年增100％。平均进口价格为USD3045／吨，按年增85.1％。
－亚洲出产了全世界大约55.1％（32,108,914／58,264,344）的休闲车，和大约43.7％（8,460,270／19,354,557）的商用车。商用车的树胶消耗量大约是休闲车的3倍。在亚洲的生产，中国就占了45％的生产（18,264,667休闲＋商用）。

想要更多关于树胶的资料可参考nrstats。

-树胶需求的展望良好。
"Annualised global rubber consumption reached 25.8 million tonnes by end Q3 2011, 6.0% higher than at the same point in 2010, reflecting a decelerating increase in the demand for vehicles and tyres. Global SR production was 7.5% higher than at end Q3 2010, in line with the relatively strong growth seen in SR consumption supported by competitive prices, while global NR supply was 4.1% higher than at end Q3 2010.

Global rubber demand is forecast to reach 27.2 million tonnes in 2012. Global SR demand is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2012, while global NR demand is forecast to rise by 4.6% in 2012. The global NR production is forecast to rise by 5.1% in 2012, driven by a higher growth in the Normal production."
Source: IRSG

"Global rubber consumption reached 24.6 million tonnes in 2010, 15.3 percent higher than in 2009, reflecting a strong recovery in the demand for vehicles and tyres, the International Rubber Study Group said in a statement. "
"IRSG forcast global demand for rubber, both natural and synthetic, is forecast to rise to 25.7 million tonnes in 2011"
"IRSG forecast deomand to rise further in 2012 to 27.6 million tonnes"
Source: Reuters

－印度是世界第二大天然胶消耗国。
－2010年12月24日，印度政府将2011年3月31日前的入口税降低至7.5％。

胶手套价格：

2005年－由于乳胶价格高涨，大马胶手套厂商公会(MARGMA)有意将每1000只手套价格调高2美元至3.8美元（1000只手套的天然胶成本约为RM2-RM2.50，所以涨幅大约是成本的3倍）。
The average price of rubber gloves exported increased 5% in 2010, year-on-year.

手套需求：

美国是全世界最大的进口国（35％），紧接着的是欧洲和巴西。
In Year 2010,significant increases were registered for exports to China(20%), USA(27%), EU27(26%), Japan(31%), Russia(54%) and South Korea(63%). The markets for rubber gloves continued to be dominated by the USA and EU27, which combined accounted for 67% of the total exports of rubber gloves from Malaysia in 2010.
MREPC has intensified its promotional efforts in emerging countries such as China, India, Russia and the South American countries to increase awareness in usage of rubber medical gloves. There is great market potential as per capita consumption of gloves is still very low in these countries as compared to the US where per capita consumption of rubber medical gloves is about 40 pairs.”
90% of total production is medical gloves.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/216618-cheap-healthcare-alternative.html

手套领域优势：

大马是全世界第三大的树胶生产国，加上邻国泰国和印尼分别是全世界最大和第二大生产国，大马的原料供应占绝对优势。

生产／消耗数据

全球先进国（包括主要入口国美国，欧洲）人口老化。一些参考数据：

During 2000--2030, the worldwide population aged >;65 years is projected to increase by approximately 550 million to 973 million (3), increasing from 6.9% to 12.0% worldwide, from 15.5% to 24.3% in Europe, from 12.6% to 20.3% in North America, from 6.0% to 12.0% in Asia, and from 5.5% to 11.6% in Latin America and the Caribbean

In the United States, the proportion of the population aged >;65 years is projected to increase from 12.4% in 2000 to 19.6% in 2030 (3). The number of persons aged >;65 years is expected to increase from approximately 35 million in 2000 to an estimated 71 million in 2030

Young people (0 to 14 years old) made up 15.6 % of the EU-27’s population in 2010, while persons considered to be of working age (15 to 64 years old) accounted for 67.0 % of the population, and older persons (65 or more years old) had a 17.4 % share

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Population_structure_and_ageing

http://www.aoa.gov/aoaroot/aging_statistics/index.aspx

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5206a2.htm

http://www.prb.org/Articles/2011/agingpopulationclocks.aspx

http://transgenerational.org/aging/demographics.htm

全球尤其是新兴市场越来越强烈的卫生意识

The Chinese government has implemented plans for a US$124.3 billion healthcare reform programme to build clinic in each of its 700,000 villages and raise hygienic standards.
[Public Listed Magazine October 2011]