myInvestment Paradise: 运输业

利好条件：
- stable oil prices

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NRGSCL12:IND/chart

- shipping companies scrap vessels due to operating costs higher than profit

不利条件：

- vessels over capacity (loose financing pre-subprime crisis 2008 and over optimistic leads to ordered more fleets than were actually required)
++ As at end of June, another huge wave of fleet deliveries at 58.8 million deadweight tonnes (dwt) that reflected an increase of 14.8% year-on-year was recorded.
++ MIDF Research said during the first half of the year, the two smaller types of vessel namely Handysize and Supramax earned better charter rates than the other two larger types, Panamax and Capesize, mainly due to different growth rate of fleet size.It said the Panamax and Capesize bulk carriers experienced burgeoning fleet size as it recorded fleet growth of 22.2% year-on-year and 20.4% year-on-year respectively. In comparison, the Handysize and Supramax posted fleet growth of -2.3% year-on-year and 15% year-on-year respectively as at June.
http://thestar.com.my/maritime/story.asp?file=/2012/7/23/maritime/11703508&sec=maritime
++ Analyst said delivery of new vessels this year will reach around 103 million dwt, which constitute about 65% of the total industry order book.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/213444-maybulk-to-scale-back-dividends-buy-new-vessels.html

- dry bulk freight rate under pressure
++ Maybulk average daily time charter equivalent rates earned by its fleet fell to US$15,737 per day, from 2010's US$22,846 per day.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/213444-maybulk-to-scale-back-dividends-buy-new-vessels.html

- slowdown of China,India economies which contribute most of the bulk carriers demand (iron ore, coal, grain,sand,gravel,fertilizer,steel,lumber,agricultural products etc), can also leads to vessels over capacity

什么运输公司可投资？
- 握有足够现金的，可攻可守。攻可以趁运输船低价时收购，守可以在公司出现负现金流或亏损时熬过风暴。
- 信誉好的公司，在风暴时仍可以获得银行贷款。

Signal to look for?
- successfully secure bank loan during this hard period to expand vessels, take over competitors with financial trouble

- vessels supply dwt start to come down

- scale back dividends to buy new vessels when price is low (Maybulk)
++ According to a report by RS Platou, which tracks the shipping industry, the price of new building capsize dry bulk carriers in April 2011 is about US$48 million, down from almost US$100 million in 2008/09.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/213444-maybulk-to-scale-back-dividends-buy-new-vessels.html

What can affect shipping industry?
- changes in exploration or production of energy resources
- location of production/exploration sites
- location of consuming regions
- development in international trade
- changes in transportation patterns
- currency rates (appreciation of currency improve purchasing power)

Shortlisted companies:

Maybulk (Bursa Malaysia)
DSX - Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE)
Cosco Group (SGX)

BDI Index
The Baltic Dry Index (replaces the Baltic Freight Index): A composite of the Baltic Capesize, Panamax, Handysize and Supramax indices. The index is designed as the successor to the Baltic Freight Index and was first published on January 4 1985 at 1000 points.Last day of trading yr - Christmas Eve