World consumption of medical examination and surgical gloves is 155 billion, and growing at 8% to 10% per annum (as at year-2012)
Major rubber glove producing countries in world market share: Malaysia(63%), Thailand(19%), Indonesia(13%)
Industry consolidation
Industry has moved from many players controlling a smaller world market share to fewer players controlling larger market share
Glove's users
- 目前乳胶与丁腈手套的市场比例为70:30，在丁腈手套逐渐夺走乳胶手套市场的情势下，预见两者在未来五年的需求与销售比例将到50:50的水平。
http://www.nanyang.com.my/node/413601?tid=462 (Jan.2012 - FY2012)
- Currently, Malaysia exports rubber gloves to the US, European Union, Latin America, China and India. Demand for lower-end powdered latex gloves is popular among developing countries whose end-users are more cost-conscious. Powder-free latex and nitrile gloves are preferred by developed countries namely the United States and Europe.
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/705609/global_rubber_gloves_market_an_analysis (Year 2009)
- Doctors & nurses
- Consumer markets
- Dentists & surgeons
- Laboratories
- Food industry
- Tattooists
- Nursing homes/Home healthcare
and many others...
- 我国天然胶主要出口国为中国（44.3%）、德国（12.5%）、伊朗（9.4%）、美国（5.7%）、韩国（4.3%）、土耳其（3%），以及墨西哥（1.6%）。
http://nanyang.com.my/node/504058 (Year-2013 Q1)
- 依據世界衛生組織（WHO），美國手套需求在流感惡化時未大幅成長，在2003年的沙斯期間僅微增6.6%；2007和2009年的H5N1和H1N1時，手套增長更低，僅各起5.9和2.2%。
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/69245 (Jan.2013)
Comparison
| TopGlove | Hartalega | Kossan | Supermax | |
| Sales per employee | RM930m/3000=RM310k/staff | |||
| Output per employee | TopGlove | RM9.7b/3000=3.2m/staff | Kossan | Supermax |
| (Net) Profit per employee | TopGlove | RM195m/3000=RM65k/staff | Kossan | Supermax |
| Staff cost per employee | TopGlove | RM67,002,550/3000=RM22,334/staff | Kossan | Supermax |
| Average line capacity | TopGlove | Kossan | Supermax |
Cost structure (on average)
- Manpower 10%
- Energy 10%
- Primary raw material 60%
- 随着政府宣布外劳须自行负担外劳人头税后，分析员看好这项新条例将对手套业者的发展有利，因为可减轻劳力成本压力。基于手套领域仍相当依赖劳力，任何有关外劳的措施，都对手套业者产生影响深远。
- 安联研究分析员指出，手套业者目前平均支付给每位外劳每月约600令吉的薪金，即使业者如今无需支付每年约1200令吉的外劳人头税，仍需为每位外劳加薪200令吉。因此，外劳人头税的新措施，将可为手套业者减轻外劳成本增幅的33%。
- 如今，许多手套业者期望通过试用自动化，减轻60%至70%的劳力成本，其余则转嫁给客户。
- 无论如何，现阶段市场还在等待政府对有关建议把各种津贴（约每月120-150令吉）纳入最低薪金的进一步确认。
- 在安联研究进行分析的4家手套公司中，顶级手套（TopGlov，7113，主板工业产品股）对劳力成本变化最为敏感，因该公司最依赖劳力。
http://www.nanyang.com/node/508546?tid=462 (Feb.2013 - FY2013)
Raw material
- “彭博社”報導指出，早上10時24分，東京原產品交易所的橡膠11月份期貨下跌1.6%，至每公噸2479美元（約7813令吉）；今年累計跌幅已達22%。報導指出，由于主要的橡膠出口國無法針對抑制出口達成協議，相信東南亞的供應將趨增，拖累今日橡膠價格走低。
- 我國、泰國及印尼的橡膠產量貢獻全球供應約70%。
http://www.chinapress.com.my/print/432175 (June.2013)
- Raw material polymer(for nitrile gloves) latex prices were stable in recent years, but in the last few months, prices increased sharply. This occurred because crude oil prices surged to a record and a flre broke out in the plant of a big producer of polymer latex, which reduced global supply.
- Nitrile glove makers face a much shorter time lag than NR glove producers in adjusting their prices for higher raw material costs, as polymer latex, unlike NR, is not traded on any futures exchange.
- Rising global demand for nitrile gloves has driven the world"s top two nitrile latex suppliers to invest substantially in Malaysia. Synthomer Sdn Bhd, established locally in 2001, has seen burgeoning demand for nitrile latex from glove makers in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and China. PolymerLatex GmbH, the world"s second largest nit.rile supplier, as a new entrant in Malaysia, expects its world"s fourth plant in Malaysia completed in 2009.
http://www.medisafe-tech.com/news_dow.php?nid=14 (Year 2008)
- Global natural rubber output will fall 2.2 percent to 8.9 million tonnes in 2009, its biggest drop in 16 years, as Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia produce less, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said.“The 2.2 percent decline in natural rubber production anticipated in 2009 is the biggest decline in the past 16 years,"" the group said. ""Global production of natural rubber had declined by 2.6 percent during 1993."
- “(In) Thailand, the largest natural rubber producing country accounting for about 33 percent of the global supply, production dropped by 13.9 percent during the first two months of 2009 on a year-over-year basis,” it said in its March report.
- Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia agreed in December to take 915,000 tonnes of rubber out of the market in 2009, or a sixth of their 2007 combined exports of 5.5 million tonnes to support prices as a global economic downturn cut demand for tyres.
http://www.bt.com.bn/international_business/2009/04/14/global_rubber_output_biggest_drop_since_93 (Year 2009)
- “彭博社”報導指出，早上10時24分，東京原產品交易所的橡膠11月份期貨下跌1.6%，至每公噸2479美元（約7813令吉）；今年累計跌幅已達22%。報導指出，由于主要的橡膠出口國無法針對抑制出口達成協議，相信東南亞的供應將趨增，拖累今日橡膠價格走低。
- 我國、泰國及印尼的橡膠產量貢獻全球供應約70%。
http://www.chinapress.com.my/print/432175 (June.2013)
- Raw material polymer(for nitrile gloves) latex prices were stable in recent years, but in the last few months, prices increased sharply. This occurred because crude oil prices surged to a record and a flre broke out in the plant of a big producer of polymer latex, which reduced global supply.
- Nitrile glove makers face a much shorter time lag than NR glove producers in adjusting their prices for higher raw material costs, as polymer latex, unlike NR, is not traded on any futures exchange.
- Rising global demand for nitrile gloves has driven the world"s top two nitrile latex suppliers to invest substantially in Malaysia. Synthomer Sdn Bhd, established locally in 2001, has seen burgeoning demand for nitrile latex from glove makers in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and China. PolymerLatex GmbH, the world"s second largest nit.rile supplier, as a new entrant in Malaysia, expects its world"s fourth plant in Malaysia completed in 2009.
http://www.medisafe-tech.com/news_dow.php?nid=14 (Year 2008)
- Global natural rubber output will fall 2.2 percent to 8.9 million tonnes in 2009, its biggest drop in 16 years, as Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia produce less, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said.“The 2.2 percent decline in natural rubber production anticipated in 2009 is the biggest decline in the past 16 years,"" the group said. ""Global production of natural rubber had declined by 2.6 percent during 1993."
- “(In) Thailand, the largest natural rubber producing country accounting for about 33 percent of the global supply, production dropped by 13.9 percent during the first two months of 2009 on a year-over-year basis,” it said in its March report.
- Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia agreed in December to take 915,000 tonnes of rubber out of the market in 2009, or a sixth of their 2007 combined exports of 5.5 million tonnes to support prices as a global economic downturn cut demand for tyres.
http://www.bt.com.bn/international_business/2009/04/14/global_rubber_output_biggest_drop_since_93 (Year 2009)
- Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia which collectively account for some 70% of global natural rubber supply
- China is the world's largest consumer of natural rubber
- 2012年11月份天然胶产量与出口双双下滑，分别按月跌10%和2.4%。根据大马统计局数据，11月天然胶产量达7万5224吨，按月跌10%，按年则写下10.4%的涨幅。其中，小园主贡献总产量的94.3%，另5.7%来自大园丘；从州属来看，吉打占最高比例报21.6%，紧追在后的是霹雳（17.4%）。
- 与10月比较，11月天然胶总出口跌2.4%，按年滑落1.9%至6万5043吨；标准马来西亚橡胶（SMR）贡献94.3%，其中59.3%为SMR20。
- 进口方面，11月我国共进口9万2361吨天然胶，按月减少0.8%、按年则扬54.4%。浓缩乳胶占总进口的31.7%，标准橡胶则占30.3%。其中，天然胶主要供应国为泰国和越南，比例分别为54.7%和20.4%，意味着占总出口的75.1%。
- 11月的本地天然胶消费按月跌1.8%、按年涨11%，至3万7527吨。
- 截至11月杪，天然胶库存按月涨9.2%至16万2150吨，按年也取得19.3%的涨幅。浓缩乳胶在当月的平均价格为每公斤560.95仙，按月和按年分别下滑9%与19%。
http://nanyang.com.my/node/504058 (Year-2013 Q1)
-包括印尼和科特迪瓦在内的全球橡胶园今年可望大丰收，预料橡胶会出现至少2004年以来最严重的供应过剩现象。
- 以谏山雄一郎为首的高盛集团分析员预估，今年橡胶供过于求将达40万公吨（供给增加7%至1180万公吨，需求仅增3%至1140万吨），与去年供不应求8.7万吨形成强烈对比。
- 去年供给短缺推升橡胶价格，在2月18日东京商品交易所涨至创纪录的每公斤535.7日元，后来因为供给看升，且中国的需求成长放缓，价格逐步下滑至272.7日元，跌幅达49%。
http://www.nanyang.com/node/413217?tid=459 (Dec.2011 - FY2012)
-由于环球经济呆滞冲击需求量，乳胶汁价格已经走低。今年迄今，乳胶汁价格已经滑落8.97%至每公斤5.50令吉。据统计局披露，浓缩乳胶平均价格在6月失34.07仙至549.95仙，比前一个下降5.8%，或按年比较急挫113.76仙或17.1%。
http://www.eunited.com.my/?q=node/44639 (Sept.2013)
Global market share
－ 世界一年生产 1000 亿个手套，而马来西亚的公司占了 40% 以上。
http://www.investalks.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=74&highlight=harta ＃1 chengyk (Year 2009)
- Malaysia is the world"s biggest producer of NR and nitrile (SR) gloves, with a global market share of about 60%. This gives the industry here a pricing power.
- Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers Association (MARGMA) has raised its forecast on rubber glove exports to RM 6.35 billion for 2008 (compared to RM 5.88 billion for 2007), thanks to a stronger US dollar and increasing demand of medical gloves at hospitals throughout the world. Malaysia exported RM 3.16 billion worth of rubber gloves for the first half year, up 11% over the corresponding period last year.
- In early 2000"s, there was the trend in the US of a switch from NR gloves to SR gloves. Until today, some American healthcare organizations continue to negatively perceive that NR gloves cause skin irritation. Hypersensitivity to NR protein allergens, although occurring to a very small number of customers, has led to negative perception of NR gloves in America. This has led to a preference for nitrile gloves that are protein-free. Consequently, the market share of SR medical gloves in the US increased from 18.6%in 2006 to 26.8% in 2007, while that of NR gloves declined from 48% to about 41%, according to a study.
The nitrile glove sub-sector has experienced burgeoning demand in the US and Europe. The demand for nitrile gloves in hospitals there just keeps increasing. Large scale production by major producers is bringing down the world"s average price of nitrile gloves. Five years ago, very few hospitals could afford nitrile gloves. Now, it is fast becoming the preferred choice, being made affordable, with quality maintained. More healthcare organizations me switching from NR gloves to nitrile gloves.
http://www.medisafe-tech.com/news_dow.php?nid=14 (Year 2008)
- Malaysia is the largest worldwide exporter of rubber gloves whereas Thailand accounts for less than half of the Malaysian market share. Malaysia’s strength is its productive labor. Each worker in the rubber gloves industry in Malaysia is estimated to be nearly three times more productive compared to Thailand and twice to Indonesian workers.
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/705609/global_rubber_gloves_market_an_analysis (Year 2009)
－ 世界一年生产 1000 亿个手套，而马来西亚的公司占了 40% 以上。
http://www.investalks.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=74&highlight=harta ＃1 chengyk (Year 2009)
- Malaysia is the world"s biggest producer of NR and nitrile (SR) gloves, with a global market share of about 60%. This gives the industry here a pricing power.
- Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers Association (MARGMA) has raised its forecast on rubber glove exports to RM 6.35 billion for 2008 (compared to RM 5.88 billion for 2007), thanks to a stronger US dollar and increasing demand of medical gloves at hospitals throughout the world. Malaysia exported RM 3.16 billion worth of rubber gloves for the first half year, up 11% over the corresponding period last year.
- In early 2000"s, there was the trend in the US of a switch from NR gloves to SR gloves. Until today, some American healthcare organizations continue to negatively perceive that NR gloves cause skin irritation. Hypersensitivity to NR protein allergens, although occurring to a very small number of customers, has led to negative perception of NR gloves in America. This has led to a preference for nitrile gloves that are protein-free. Consequently, the market share of SR medical gloves in the US increased from 18.6%in 2006 to 26.8% in 2007, while that of NR gloves declined from 48% to about 41%, according to a study.
The nitrile glove sub-sector has experienced burgeoning demand in the US and Europe. The demand for nitrile gloves in hospitals there just keeps increasing. Large scale production by major producers is bringing down the world"s average price of nitrile gloves. Five years ago, very few hospitals could afford nitrile gloves. Now, it is fast becoming the preferred choice, being made affordable, with quality maintained. More healthcare organizations me switching from NR gloves to nitrile gloves.
http://www.medisafe-tech.com/news_dow.php?nid=14 (Year 2008)
- Malaysia is the largest worldwide exporter of rubber gloves whereas Thailand accounts for less than half of the Malaysian market share. Malaysia’s strength is its productive labor. Each worker in the rubber gloves industry in Malaysia is estimated to be nearly three times more productive compared to Thailand and twice to Indonesian workers.
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/705609/global_rubber_gloves_market_an_analysis (Year 2009)
- Malaysian glove makers account for some 66% of world rubber glove sales, which come to about 150 billion pieces a year
- CIMB Research points out that glove consumption in China is two gloves per person per annum compared with 50 in Europe and 96 in North America
- Global rubber growth usage
US and EU27 with only 11% of world's population consumed 68% of global glove usage
Other regions with 89% population consumed only 32% of global glove usage
- Demand growth
- Despite the ongoing instability in the Eurozone and a weak US economy, global demand for rubber gloves remained resilient in 2012, growing by approximately 10% per annum. The trend clearly continues to shift towards synthetic rubber, with nitrile gloves now comprising more than 82% of total glove imports to the United States.
- Malaysia holds the prestige of retaining its position as the world’s largest supplier of rubber gloves, commanding 63% of global market share. The US and Europe were the largest importers of Malaysian nitrile gloves in 2012, with 9.6 billion and 5.3 billion pairs of gloves respectively, a significant increase from the previous year.
- Total exports of both natural and synthetic Malaysian rubber gloves rose by 14.9%, chiefly led by the nitrile glove segment which saw total exports increasing by 26% during the year. This was a sharp contrast to latex glove exports, which saw a marginal increase of only 7%.
- Hartalega's annual report 2013
Future:
- Invest in automation
- Target balance capacity mix of natural and synthetic rubber glove
- Move upstream to rubber plantation
- Biomass plant
- Ageing population
- Healthcare regulations
- More stringent healthcare requirements globally will generate demand
- Increasing healthcare and hygiene awareness together with the standard of living, demand from heavy-populated countries like India, China and even Vietname is poised to take off in a big way
CIMB analysts suggests that China could consume up to 50 billion to 139 billion gloves per annum which could be worth RM4.5 billion to RM12.5 billion in annual revenue or three to 6.3 times Top Glove's RM2 billion annual revenue.
- In developed countries, the use of rubber gloves is extending to non-medical sectors like food preparation as well as industrial applications.
- Nitrile wave - switching phenomenon of users into nitrile gloves
Bear case:
- Too aggressive expansion, uptake of new capacity (Supply > Demand)
- Moving upstream (Top Glove, Kossan)
- Currency exposure. Time lag in passing on to customers when USD weakens sharply
- Raw material price fluctuation. Time lag in passing on to customers when prices move up sharply
Global natural rubber surplus/(deficit)
- Minimum age policies
- Removal of gas subsidies
- 即使流感肆，也未必是所有手套业者将受惠，这时基于以下数个原因：
1. 中国大部分是采用powder free latex和vinyl glove或俗称塑胶手套。
2. 中国大部分的手套是源自于当地的厂商。我国三大手套业者Topglove,Harta,Supermax并没有深足中国市场，中国占他们销售额不到5％比重。
3.H7N9发生在手套消费量偏低的中国，不想上一轮的H1N1流感是发生在手套消费量相对较高和较成熟的美国。在中国，每年人均手套使用量是2只，而美国则高达90只。
- 在H1N1期间，手套业者的赚幅按年增加8－11％。
- 在H1N1期间，手套业者的赚幅按年增加8－11％。
(Busy weekly #220 April.2013)
- 安联投行分析员指出，进入今年第4季，手套领域的基本面包括，稳定的胶乳成本，稳定的美元兑令吉匯价，適中的產能扩充等因素都保持。
- 顶级手套在第二季没有达到预期，主要是因为天然胶手套业务面对丁月青手套剧烈的竞爭，导致赚幅受到压缩。
- 整体而言，手套领域在第2季看到健康的需求成长，按年成长18.2%，按季成长4.3%。因此，这一季的產能使用率也有所改善。
- 安联投行追踪的四家手套股当中，高產尼品的销售成长最高（按年成长24.2%，按季成长0.9%），排在第二的是贺特佳（按年成长22.8%，按季成长5.2%），接下来是顶级手套（按年成长18.5%，按季成长6.5%）及速柏玛的销售成长最低，按年只成长10.5%，按季成长2.5%。
- 进入2013年末季，分析员仍乐观看待手套领域的基本面，因为成本稳定，有利的匯率走势及產能过剩情况受到控制。安联投行分析员指出，胶乳供应过剩，因此价格预计將维持在每公斤5令吉至每公斤6令吉，对持续面对赚幅受压缩的天然胶手套业者而言，是一个喜讯。此外，美元兑令吉匯价走势稳定，以及主要业者有纪律的进行產能扩充，这些都是对市场有利的因素。
http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=75397:&Itemid=198 (Sept.2013)
- 顶级手套在第二季没有达到预期，主要是因为天然胶手套业务面对丁月青手套剧烈的竞爭，导致赚幅受到压缩。
- 整体而言，手套领域在第2季看到健康的需求成长，按年成长18.2%，按季成长4.3%。因此，这一季的產能使用率也有所改善。
- 安联投行追踪的四家手套股当中，高產尼品的销售成长最高（按年成长24.2%，按季成长0.9%），排在第二的是贺特佳（按年成长22.8%，按季成长5.2%），接下来是顶级手套（按年成长18.5%，按季成长6.5%）及速柏玛的销售成长最低，按年只成长10.5%，按季成长2.5%。
- 进入2013年末季，分析员仍乐观看待手套领域的基本面，因为成本稳定，有利的匯率走势及產能过剩情况受到控制。安联投行分析员指出，胶乳供应过剩，因此价格预计將维持在每公斤5令吉至每公斤6令吉，对持续面对赚幅受压缩的天然胶手套业者而言，是一个喜讯。此外，美元兑令吉匯价走势稳定，以及主要业者有纪律的进行產能扩充，这些都是对市场有利的因素。
http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=75397:&Itemid=198 (Sept.2013)
－销售趋势而言，分析员相信，丁月青手套的需求及价格將维持，因为消费者继续从天然胶手套转向丁月青手套，因为后者的成本较低，也因此，业者在过去两年持续提高丁月青手套的產能。
－ 在中长期內，分析员相信，丁月青手套的竞爭优势將继续超越天然胶手套，主要是因为美国页岩天然气领域的科技革命，导致人造胶成本持续低于天然胶。直到8月，丁月青手套的成本仍比天然胶手套低24%。在考虑到原油价格走高对丁月青手套成本的影响，若胶乳跌破每公斤4.50令吉，分析员认为天然胶手套將有机会重新回复价格竞爭力。不过这样的可能性不高，因为主要出產国，包括泰国，大马及印尼的政府將会在天然胶价格下跌时进行干预。
－ 但分析员认为，大马手套业者在国际市场上有主导的地位，因此，有能力將成本转嫁给客户。此外，天然气仅佔生產成本的10%，和佔45至55%的胶乳成本，这两项目其对手套领域成本的影响不可同日而语。
http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=75397:&Itemid=198 (Sept.2013)
- Demand for gloves still intact, nitrile gloves continue to lead. We believe that the average 10% demand growth p.a. for rubber gloves over the next few years can be sustained. In 2012, the total exports of gloves, synthetic rubber (SR) and natural rubber (NR) combined, rose 14.9% YoY to 40.7b pairs and 3.6% to RM9.8b in value. In 2012, Malaysia exported 18.6 billion pairs of SR gloves or an increase of 26% YoY. The overall demand is expected to continue to be led by NR gloves, although SR gloves have consistently been nibbling at the former’s market share. While latex-based gloves or NR gloves are still dominant (as a percentage to the overall exports of rubber gloves) in Malaysia, the trend is moving towards SR gloves. This was evident from the lower NR:SR sales value ratio of 61:39 in 2011 to 57:43 in 2012, and the sales volume ratio of 58:42 in 2011 compared to 54:46 in 2012.
- No worries about potential high energy costs going forward. Looking ahead, we believe that rubber glove players may face higher production costs following the recent increase in fuel pump prices, which is in line with the Government subsidy rationalisation programme. Effective Jun 2011, the government has raised gas price by 7% to RM16.07 per mmbtu from RM15 per mmbtu. There will be a subsequent 8-19% price increase every 6 months until 2015. However, the dateline for the last review in December 2011 has passed and yet to be effected. At the same time, in 2011, the electricity tariff rate was raised by 8-10%. The hike in energy prices was expected, in line with the Government’s subsidy rationalization programme. We are not overly concerned on any potential hike in gas price since energy cost makes up 8-9% of production costs.
Rubber glove players impact to GST is neutral. Generally, all goods exported out of Malaysia will be zero-rated. This means that the registered exporter does not collect GST on its exports. However, manufacturers, including rubber glove players would have to pay for GST on his business purchases or raw material costs before selling their product but is able to claim credit for the GST paid for the inputs. This means that manufacturers may have to carefully plan their cash flow and turnaround time.
Oversupply concerns in CY2014 appear overplayed. Looking at the new gloves capacity coming on-stream towards end-CY2014, we are not overly concerned of a potential oversupply situation at least in CY2014. Based on the back-of-the-envelope calculations, applying the same sales volume growth of 15% achieved in 2012 Malaysian exports of 81.4b pieces of rubber gloves to 2013 and 2014, this would yield an increase of 12.2b and 14.1b pieces, respectively. Note that in 1H 2013, the average sales volume growth was between 18-20% which outpaced the 15% growth assumption we illustrated above. As such the expected 14.1b pieces volume growth is slightly less than the totalled estimated new capacity of rubber glove players under our coverage of 16.4b. Hence, we believe any oversupply concerns in CY2014 appear overplayed. Furthermore, most glove manufacturers can only run at an average maximum utilisation rate of 90% as they require some downtime for maintenance while industry capacity expansions are only coming in progressively throughout CY2014. This implies the addition of only 14.8bn pieces (90% of 16.4b pieces) at end-CY2014.
- Weakening of Ringgit (RM) vs. US dollar (USD) is short term positive to rubber glove players. Generally, a weakening Ringgit is positive for glove makers. Since sales are USD denominated, theoretically, a depreciating ringgit against the dollar will lead to more revenue receipts for glove makers. The ringgit has weakened by 9% to RM3.26 from an average of RM2.99 against the dollar over the past several weeks. Ceteris paribus, a 1% depreciation of RM against USD will lead to an average 1%-2% increase in the net profit of rubber glove players. However, we believe the impact from currency movements (RM vs USD) to glove players’ earning is neutral over the long-term. This is because glove players typically hedge the currency on a consistent basis, hence in theory any negative or positive impact will be offset over time.
- Expecting raw material inputs to trade lower or maintain current price levels going forward. We expect both input raw material price of latex and nitrile to stay soft at least over the medium term. We understand that there is abundant supply of nitrile raw material and we do not anticipate a shortage of nitrile for the remaining of 2013. China is going ahead with adding eight more crude oil based naphtha crackers (Butadiene is input raw material for nitrile is produced through hydrocarbon i.e., natural gas or naphtha) within the next two years with four already rolling off the press in the first quarter of 2013 namely China Maoming Petrochemical Shihua 100k tonnes capacity in Guangzhou, YPC-GPRO 100k tonnes capacity in Nanjing, Sichuan Petrochemical 100k tonnes capacity in Sichuan and Zhejiang Transfer Synthetic National 150k tonnes capacity in Hangzhou. Formosa Petrochemicals in Taiwan, Titan Petrochemicals and Pertamina in Indonesia, Thailand PTT Global Chemicals and Bangkok Synthetics are also planning to increase capacity. These indicate that there will be no shortage of supply of nitrile raw materials over the next two years. Similarly, latex price appears to trend or remain sustained low throughout the remainder of 2013 and over the medium term. Slowdown from China, the biggest rubber user, consuming 3.85 million tons last year, representing 34% of global demand due to the slower-than-expected economic growth there. According to RCMA Commodities Asia Group, a Singapore-based company that has traded rubber for nine decades, rubber is headed for the biggest glut on record as supply exceeds demand for a third year and Southeast Asian exporters ended curbs on shipments. The surplus will expand 57% to 490,000 metric tons this year, enough to meet U.S. demand for six months. As such, the surplus is expected to push down prices of natural rubber or at least remain low over the medium to long term. China, the largest buyer, will import 14% less in the seven months ending in December than a year earlier, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries estimates.
- Kenanga Oct.2013
- Just fifteen days into 2014 and the latex price has already dropped
by 12% YTD to MYR4.75/kg (-23% YoY). We think the free fall could
be due to: (i) rising supply, which outweighs the steady demand.
The supply surplus for natural rubber is expected to widen in 2014
as rubber plantations in Thailand and Vietnam enter their mature
phase; and (ii) the Thai government’s preoccupation with its
political turmoil at home, and it has not been aggressively stocking
up natural rubber inventories to shore up prices.
- The sector is also likely to witness another energy cost hike in 2014, ie gas tariffs. However, we believe glove makers will be able to pass on the cost given that it is an industry-wide cost inflation. We note that the recently implemented electricity tariff hike has been fully passed through, keeping glove-makers’ margins intact.
- Lower latex price in January is an anomaly as it usually creeps up ahead of the wintering period of the rubber trees (low yield season), which normally falls in February to May. In the first 15 days of 2014 alone, the price of latex already declined by 12% YTD to MYR4.75/kg (-23% YoY). Expectations are for latex prices to recover in February-May, which is typically a period of lower yields from rubber trees. Nevertheless, with rubber plantations entering their mature phase, industry players believe that the quantum increase may not be as meaningful as before and that the price of latex could still be lower YoY.
Recall that the
massive demand switch from latex powder-free to nitrile gloves from 2010
to 2013 encouraged attractive pricing for nitrile gloves, this being the
product of cheaper NBR input costs (vs latex). However, following the
sharp drop of the latex price, the price gap between NBR and latex closed
in Jan 2014. Latex powder-free gloves are presently quoted at around a 5%
discount to nitrile gloves, and a lower latex price will allow Top Glove to
price its latex powder-free gloves much lower, thereby stimulating sales.
Latex powder-free gloves currently account for approximately 21% of Top
Glove’s total sales volume.
- YTD, natural rubber (NR) prices are down by ~14%. The global benchmark in Tokyo entered
a bear market last month (a rare occasion at this time of the year) following:- (1) increasing
signs of a slowdown in China (~35% of global rubber demand); (2) swelling stockpiles at
Qingdao (+8% MoM in January); and (3) higher expected rubber output.
- With the drought this year expected to be quite severe and the possibility of a supply disruption given the current political protests in Thailand, the group is optimistic of some upside to rubber prices. If, however, no green shoots are seen by its next meeting at end- February, the group may resort to collectively limiting exports, restricting tapping or purchasing rubber directly from farmers to shore up prices.
- Recall that back in August 2012, ITRC had entered into an agreement to address the fall in NR prices by reducing total exports by 300,000 tonnes and cut aging trees until March 2013. The impact was short-lived as prices declined by 9% in November 2012 after gaining 5% in October 2012. Recognising this, IRCo will also propose a “Supply Management Scheme” as another method to ensure long-term NR price stability.
- The largest gainers would undoubtedly be those with product mix tilted toward NR gloves, more so given that there may be a slowdown in the switching momentum from NR to nitrile gloves following the reversal in input price trends. Nitrile is now trading at a premium to latex, which is against the norm of the past 2 years.
(AmResearch Feb.2014)
- “This year(2014) will be a challenging year in terms of managing costs pressures as well as selling price pressures. We are enjoying margins of about 15% to 16%, but with the incoming capacity and rising costs I expect to see margins coming down to about 9% to 11%,” said Supermax Corp Bhd executive chairman and group managing director Datuk Seri Stanley Thai in an interview with The Edge Financial Daily.
- The country’s big four glove- makers — Supermax, Top Glove Corp Bhd, Hartalega Holdings Bhd and Kossan Rubber Industries have been aggressively expanding their nitrile glove production in recent years. Combined, nitrile glove capacity is projected to grow by 13 billion pieces by the end of this year, up 47% from 37.9 billion pieces currently. The bulk of the capacity expansion is being led by Supermax and Kossan. Supermax alone is more than doubling its nitrile capacity to 12.3 billion pieces by year-end when its two new production lines come online. And Malaysian glove makers are not the only ones expanding, said Thai. Chinese, Thai and Indonesian glove makers are also bumping up capacity to take advantage of the good nitrile glove margins, he added.
- Glove makers with the highest margin and selling price will be the hardest hit, predicts Thai, noting that some of his competitors have booked margins in excess of 20%. “With the increased capacity, customers won’t pay that price anymore. They might pay a small premium but it won’t be as big as before,” he added. Thai, meanwhile, sees Supermax and rival Top Glove being better insulated from an oversupply situation given their wider customer base. “The rest may have a smaller customer base, but their purchases are big. However, these customers can’t keep paying big premiums. “I expect to see these big customers slicing off some of their procurement to other manufacturers,” said Thai.
- Based on yesterday’s closing price of RM2.85, Supermax is still the cheapest glove maker based on its price earnings ratio of 15.05
times. In comparison, Top Glove was valued at 19.06 times, Kossan at 20.28 times, and Hartalega at 20.4 times earnings.
- 本地主要膠手套製造業者認為，大馬政府最近將電費大幅度上調16%實是過於激烈，並吁請政府考慮將電費漲幅減半至更為合理的8%水平，因為業者需要一段時間去適應，避免過度加重膠手套行業生產成本與競爭力，從而威脅大馬膠手套行業的競爭力與領導者地位。
- 林寬城指出，業者採用更好科技工藝，也是維持成長的最佳方法之一，以便與競爭對手——如泰國、印尼及越南等競爭。隨著行業發展與轉變，膠手套行業將不再是勞力密集行業，而轉變為生產自動化及機械化方向前進。
- 大馬膠手套廠商協會會長林魁賢披露，在全球需求因素方面，雖然爆發歐債危機，不過，2013年全球膠手套需求仍然殷切，這主要是4大因素所致，包括市場對保健及衛生的警覺有所改善、更為嚴格管制的保健改革、原料成本走低及非醫藥領域的成長.
- 目前全球膠手套市場每年需求為1千500億只，其中大馬出口960億只或是63%，成為全球最大的膠手套生產及出口國，而泰國則佔19%及印尼為16%。
- 大馬膠手套在全球市場的優勢，包括獲得政府及相關各行業良好支持、良好的專業及研究與開發（R&D）、良好基建、能源來源具有競爭力、及較易取得生產原料等。
- 大馬膠手套的出口價值逐年增加，即從2007年的58億7千萬令吉，至2012年已倍增至105億令吉。截至2013年9月為止則達79億3千萬令吉，預料全年可達140億令吉。林魁賢指出，預料至2020年的出口總值將達到300億令吉。若以目前全球膠手套需求每年增加6%至8%，預料它的需求將在7年裡翻一番（倍增），未來前景依然可期。
- 林魁賢指出，該行業的生產成本問題，首要為原料成本、兌美元的外匯走勢、電費起價、天然氣價格、消費稅的衝擊及勞工成本等。該行業在建立產能時將面對的問題，包括資本與融資需求、基建與後援需求、操作自動化、重新投資津貼及人力資本的發展等。
- 大馬膠手套行業生產科技不斷改進，如在1998年時，膠手套生產線速度僅為每小時生產3千隻手套，在不斷改進後，目前已經可以做到每小時生產4萬6千隻膠手套。
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/91668?tid=6 Mar.2014
He points out that China’s per capita consumption of glove is 4-10 pieces per capita, compared to the United States where per capita consumption is 140 pieces, suggesting a huge potential exists in the world’s most populous country. “Hypothetically, if China’s per capita consumption of gloves reaches a level that is similar to the US, it will have a market size of 180 billion pieces per annum, more than the current global glove market size of 150 billion pieces per annum (of which 40% is nitrile).”
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/03/15/Hartalega-presses-on-Competition-to-be-intense-as-market-innovates/ Mar.2014
http://www.nanyang.com/node/609340?tid=462 Mar.2014
- 大马气体（GasMsia，5209，主板贸服股）宣布获准让天然气涨价，5月1日起生效，平均涨幅是在20%，这消息导致手套股股价应声下滑。 肯纳格研究分析员指出，假设手套业者没有將天然气涨价带来的额外成本转嫁给消费者，这些手套股的盈利將会减少1-3%。然而，从过去的电费及天然气价格上调的经验看来，业者都会將额外的成本转嫁给客户，因此，分析员对这次的天然气价格上调的影响，並不感到担忧。达证券分析员认为，涨价提议会直接影响所有国內的手套製造商，成本转嫁的比重尚未確定，保守估计厂家会把80%的成本转嫁至客户。
- 达证券则指出，在没有成本转嫁情况下，分析员预计顶级手套会受到最大影响，净利料下滑12.2%。而贺特佳將受到最小幅度影响，净利下滑4.6%。另外，高產尼品和速柏玛的净利则预计將分別下调10.6%和10.8%。
- 艾芬投行分析员则指出，业者需要將平均销售价上调3-5%，才可抵消电力成本提高的影响。艾芬投行分析员预期，顶级手套將是当中受影响最大的股项，这主要是因为，该股更高的產量，將会需要更多的能源。丰隆投行分析员则认为，以目前供需平衡情况而言，生產低档手套的业者要將成本转嫁出去，有一定的难度。
http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=111433:&Itemid=198 April.2014
投資者對手套業者產能過度擴張的問題感到憂慮, 馬銀行研究認為，目前的價格競爭也只不過是暫時性的，當部份業內新產能被佔用後，平均售價將會回揚，況且若手套的需求並不旺盛，業內的擴充計劃仍可縮減。“手套產能過剩的問題每隔2至3年就會發生，並在初期階段引起價格競爭，但卻不曾導致市場應利急劇下挫的現象發生。” “我們認為產能只會是逐步擴充，因業者會緊密觀察需求變化，並在需求低於預期的時候將產能擴充腳步放緩。”
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/93564?tid=18 April.2014
- 丁腈手套銷情旺盛，手套業者一窩蜂擴充產能，分析員憂慮新增需求恐難消化所有新鮮供應，業者可能需要削價求存，手套削價戰料一觸即發。聯昌研究表示，丁腈手套需求旺盛，而天然膠手套需求開始放緩，促使國內手套業者開始提高丁腈手套產能，以在高速增長的市場中維持和攫取更大的市佔率。
- 根據估計，4大手套上市公司未來4年（2013至2017年）累積產能以複合年均增長率（CAGR）14.3%速度增長，以總產量（丁腈和天然膠手套）來看，賀特佳（HARTA,5168,主板工業產品組）和速柏瑪（SUPERMX,7106,主板工業產品組）擴張策略最為積極，複合年均增長率達22%. 相比之下，高產尼品（KOSSAN,7153,主板工業產品組）未來4年複合年均增長率為17%，而頂級手套（TOPGLOV,7113,主板工業產品組）以5.8%產能複合年均增長率墊底。
- 基於敏感憂慮，近年來丁腈手套需求增速超越天然膠手套，但聯昌研究相信丁腈手套需求將持續增長，但隨著多數發達市場已完成從天然膠過渡至丁腈手套的階段，相信過往平均增長30%的增速將難以為繼。
- “我們預期人造膠手套需求僅年增11至13%，或4年複合年均增長12%，遠低於4大手套生產商丁腈手套產能4年複合年均增長29%水平。該證券行說，4大手套生產商丁腈手套總產量料佔今年全球需求的56%，以大馬現供應全球63%橡膠手套水平來看仍相對合理，但從2015年起，領域可能因產量過剩出現更為激烈的競爭。
- “基於潛在產能過剩，我們相信售價將承受更大壓力，因客戶現比生產商擁有更高的議價能力。我們發現一位生產商已開始減價來重贏客戶的心，而部份生產商也開始削價搶市，都將使售價面對更多壓力。”
- 但興業研究預測，2014年新增丁腈手套達141億隻，將可由新增138億隻需求消化，以20%需求增長來看，相信產能過剩問題並不足為慮，因多數新增產量將可被需求消化。
- 政府在去年杪上調電費，加上政府可能在短期內提高天然氣價格，橡膠手套也將面對更高的營運成本考驗. 聯昌研究指出，手套生產商雖可透過成本轉嫁消費者相抵，但隨著領域開始面對售價壓力，生產商需權衡賺益壓力和來自泰國業者的激烈競爭，下一輪的成本轉嫁將變得日趨艱難。
- “同時，2005至2008年龐大種植規模將確保未來數年供應無虞，相信膠乳價格將持續維持低位，但以丁二烯（Butadiene）和丙烯清（Acrylonitrile）為原料的丁腈價格，卻可能隨美國頁岩氣開發釋出更廉價的乙烷（Ethane），促使生產商轉向更廉宜的乙烷，進而壓縮石腦油（Naphtha）生產商賺益，令丁二烯（Butadiene）產量大減而面對漲價風險。”
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/91668?tid=6 Mar.2014
券商认为，市场早前关注的产能过剩，有点言过其实，因手套业者已放缓增产，并相信手套领域可复苏，股价甚至可在未来数季跑赢大市。年初迄今，大马四大手套股的股价表现皆不尽理想，领跌的是顶级手套（TOPGLOV，7113，主板工业产品股），共挫13%。紧接着的是速柏玛（SUPERMX，7106，主板工业产品股）、贺特佳（HARTA，5168，主板工业产品股）和高产尼品工业（KOSSAN，7153，主板工业产品股），分别滑落11%、10%和9%。不过，肯纳格研究分析员并不担忧，因为新产能扩展活动比预期缓慢，将有助于维持供需平衡，打消市场认为供应过剩的疑虑。
http://www.nanyang.com/node/609340?tid=462 Mar.2014
政府批准大馬天然氣（GASMSIA，5209，主要板貿易）在5月1日起，調漲半島非能源工業天然氣價格，平均價格從每百萬熱能單位（mmbtu）16.07令吉，上漲20%至19.32令吉。興業證券研究分析報告指出，相信這不會重大衝擊手套業者，因為生產手套的能源成本僅占總成本的5%至6%，業者可容易把該成本轉移給消費者。
http://www.chinapress.com.my/node/517349 April.2014
An analyst with Alliance Research Sdn Bhd (Alliance Research) was generally unconcerned from this piece of news as he anticipated glovemakers to be able to pass on the cost increase to their customers, thanks to their dominance in the global glove market.
“In any case, we believe the negative impact will be short lived due to time lag on cost pass through as glove makers normally take one to one and a half months to adjust their product pricing based on the latest input cost structure.
http://www.theborneopost.com/2014/04/15/mixed-opinions-on-gas-hikes-impact-to-rubber-gloves/#ixzz2ywVyNaap April.2014
顶级手套和贺特佳早前股价面对卖压，分別跌至2年和8个月最低。年初至今，贺特佳股价总共下滑了12%，至6.35令吉，而顶级手套也下滑17%，至4.76令吉，跌势是由原料成本下滑拖低手套平均售价引起。天然胶乳价格年初至今，从每公斤5.31令吉下滑了15%，至4.51令吉。丁月青胶乳价格跌幅更大，从每公吨1445美元下滑6%，至1355美元。因此，为了保持收入赚幅，生產商需提高產量，但是对於顶级手套来说，若面对客户要求不合理的价格水平，他们会拒绝订单，这导致该公司在2014財政年末季的產量按季下滑8.5%。
http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=114765:3&Itemid=198 May.2014
- Demand for gloves still intact, nitrile gloves continue to lead. We believe that the average 10% demand growth p.a. for rubber gloves over the next few years can be sustained. In 2012, the total exports of gloves, synthetic rubber (SR) and natural rubber (NR) combined, rose 14.9% YoY to 40.7b pairs and 3.6% to RM9.8b in value. In 2012, Malaysia exported 18.6 billion pairs of SR gloves or an increase of 26% YoY. The overall demand is expected to continue to be led by NR gloves, although SR gloves have consistently been nibbling at the former’s market share. While latex-based gloves or NR gloves are still dominant (as a percentage to the overall exports of rubber gloves) in Malaysia, the trend is moving towards SR gloves. This was evident from the lower NR:SR sales value ratio of 61:39 in 2011 to 57:43 in 2012, and the sales volume ratio of 58:42 in 2011 compared to 54:46 in 2012.
- No worries about potential high energy costs going forward. Looking ahead, we believe that rubber glove players may face higher production costs following the recent increase in fuel pump prices, which is in line with the Government subsidy rationalisation programme. Effective Jun 2011, the government has raised gas price by 7% to RM16.07 per mmbtu from RM15 per mmbtu. There will be a subsequent 8-19% price increase every 6 months until 2015. However, the dateline for the last review in December 2011 has passed and yet to be effected. At the same time, in 2011, the electricity tariff rate was raised by 8-10%. The hike in energy prices was expected, in line with the Government’s subsidy rationalization programme. We are not overly concerned on any potential hike in gas price since energy cost makes up 8-9% of production costs.
Rubber glove players impact to GST is neutral. Generally, all goods exported out of Malaysia will be zero-rated. This means that the registered exporter does not collect GST on its exports. However, manufacturers, including rubber glove players would have to pay for GST on his business purchases or raw material costs before selling their product but is able to claim credit for the GST paid for the inputs. This means that manufacturers may have to carefully plan their cash flow and turnaround time.
Oversupply concerns in CY2014 appear overplayed. Looking at the new gloves capacity coming on-stream towards end-CY2014, we are not overly concerned of a potential oversupply situation at least in CY2014. Based on the back-of-the-envelope calculations, applying the same sales volume growth of 15% achieved in 2012 Malaysian exports of 81.4b pieces of rubber gloves to 2013 and 2014, this would yield an increase of 12.2b and 14.1b pieces, respectively. Note that in 1H 2013, the average sales volume growth was between 18-20% which outpaced the 15% growth assumption we illustrated above. As such the expected 14.1b pieces volume growth is slightly less than the totalled estimated new capacity of rubber glove players under our coverage of 16.4b. Hence, we believe any oversupply concerns in CY2014 appear overplayed. Furthermore, most glove manufacturers can only run at an average maximum utilisation rate of 90% as they require some downtime for maintenance while industry capacity expansions are only coming in progressively throughout CY2014. This implies the addition of only 14.8bn pieces (90% of 16.4b pieces) at end-CY2014.
- Weakening of Ringgit (RM) vs. US dollar (USD) is short term positive to rubber glove players. Generally, a weakening Ringgit is positive for glove makers. Since sales are USD denominated, theoretically, a depreciating ringgit against the dollar will lead to more revenue receipts for glove makers. The ringgit has weakened by 9% to RM3.26 from an average of RM2.99 against the dollar over the past several weeks. Ceteris paribus, a 1% depreciation of RM against USD will lead to an average 1%-2% increase in the net profit of rubber glove players. However, we believe the impact from currency movements (RM vs USD) to glove players’ earning is neutral over the long-term. This is because glove players typically hedge the currency on a consistent basis, hence in theory any negative or positive impact will be offset over time.
- Expecting raw material inputs to trade lower or maintain current price levels going forward. We expect both input raw material price of latex and nitrile to stay soft at least over the medium term. We understand that there is abundant supply of nitrile raw material and we do not anticipate a shortage of nitrile for the remaining of 2013. China is going ahead with adding eight more crude oil based naphtha crackers (Butadiene is input raw material for nitrile is produced through hydrocarbon i.e., natural gas or naphtha) within the next two years with four already rolling off the press in the first quarter of 2013 namely China Maoming Petrochemical Shihua 100k tonnes capacity in Guangzhou, YPC-GPRO 100k tonnes capacity in Nanjing, Sichuan Petrochemical 100k tonnes capacity in Sichuan and Zhejiang Transfer Synthetic National 150k tonnes capacity in Hangzhou. Formosa Petrochemicals in Taiwan, Titan Petrochemicals and Pertamina in Indonesia, Thailand PTT Global Chemicals and Bangkok Synthetics are also planning to increase capacity. These indicate that there will be no shortage of supply of nitrile raw materials over the next two years. Similarly, latex price appears to trend or remain sustained low throughout the remainder of 2013 and over the medium term. Slowdown from China, the biggest rubber user, consuming 3.85 million tons last year, representing 34% of global demand due to the slower-than-expected economic growth there. According to RCMA Commodities Asia Group, a Singapore-based company that has traded rubber for nine decades, rubber is headed for the biggest glut on record as supply exceeds demand for a third year and Southeast Asian exporters ended curbs on shipments. The surplus will expand 57% to 490,000 metric tons this year, enough to meet U.S. demand for six months. As such, the surplus is expected to push down prices of natural rubber or at least remain low over the medium to long term. China, the largest buyer, will import 14% less in the seven months ending in December than a year earlier, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries estimates.
- Kenanga Oct.2013
- CIMB Nov.2013
- The sector is also likely to witness another energy cost hike in 2014, ie gas tariffs. However, we believe glove makers will be able to pass on the cost given that it is an industry-wide cost inflation. We note that the recently implemented electricity tariff hike has been fully passed through, keeping glove-makers’ margins intact.
- Lower latex price in January is an anomaly as it usually creeps up ahead of the wintering period of the rubber trees (low yield season), which normally falls in February to May. In the first 15 days of 2014 alone, the price of latex already declined by 12% YTD to MYR4.75/kg (-23% YoY). Expectations are for latex prices to recover in February-May, which is typically a period of lower yields from rubber trees. Nevertheless, with rubber plantations entering their mature phase, industry players believe that the quantum increase may not be as meaningful as before and that the price of latex could still be lower YoY.
Over the longer term, the
demand outlook for nitrile remains favourable, with room for growth in
Europe, where nitrile gloves command a c. 50% market share of the gloves
market there, compared to about 80% in the US. Global nitrile glove
demand is expected to expand by about 15-20% this year.
At this stage, latex powder-free gloves are priced at an approximate 5% discount to nitrile gloves, which we feel may not be sufficiently large a discount to prompt a material switchover to latex powder-free gloves, as nitrile gloves are perceived as a premium product. For the switchover to materialise, we believe there needs to be a more meaningful discount of 10-15% (from 5%), which implies another 10-15% decline in latex cost, to allow for lower ASPs without sacrificing glove makers' margins.
New nitrile demand to be met by new capacity. Capacity expansion in
2014 is expected to be led by Supermax and Kossan, which have already
put in the necessary infrastructure and secured the gas supply for their
lines. Supermax will see its nitrile glove capacity increase by 1.8x (+5.4b
pcs) to 12.3b pcs this year, while Kossan is increasing its capacity by 59%
(+5b pcs) to 13.5b pcs. We estimate new supply from the Top Four
producers to total 13.6b pcs in 2014 (+48% YoY). This will cater to new
global demand, which is estimated to be about 13b pcs this year.
At this stage, latex powder-free gloves are priced at an approximate 5% discount to nitrile gloves, which we feel may not be sufficiently large a discount to prompt a material switchover to latex powder-free gloves, as nitrile gloves are perceived as a premium product. For the switchover to materialise, we believe there needs to be a more meaningful discount of 10-15% (from 5%), which implies another 10-15% decline in latex cost, to allow for lower ASPs without sacrificing glove makers' margins.
- Maybank Jan.2014
- According to news reports last week, the International Rubber Consortium (IRCo) is
advising trade associations in the International Tripartite Rubber Council (ITRC) countries to
not sell natural rubber at the present “unreasonably low” prices. The decision comes after
its recent meeting to assess the current market situation.
- With the drought this year expected to be quite severe and the possibility of a supply disruption given the current political protests in Thailand, the group is optimistic of some upside to rubber prices. If, however, no green shoots are seen by its next meeting at end- February, the group may resort to collectively limiting exports, restricting tapping or purchasing rubber directly from farmers to shore up prices.
- Recall that back in August 2012, ITRC had entered into an agreement to address the fall in NR prices by reducing total exports by 300,000 tonnes and cut aging trees until March 2013. The impact was short-lived as prices declined by 9% in November 2012 after gaining 5% in October 2012. Recognising this, IRCo will also propose a “Supply Management Scheme” as another method to ensure long-term NR price stability.
- The largest gainers would undoubtedly be those with product mix tilted toward NR gloves, more so given that there may be a slowdown in the switching momentum from NR to nitrile gloves following the reversal in input price trends. Nitrile is now trading at a premium to latex, which is against the norm of the past 2 years.
(AmResearch Feb.2014)
- “This year(2014) will be a challenging year in terms of managing costs pressures as well as selling price pressures. We are enjoying margins of about 15% to 16%, but with the incoming capacity and rising costs I expect to see margins coming down to about 9% to 11%,” said Supermax Corp Bhd executive chairman and group managing director Datuk Seri Stanley Thai in an interview with The Edge Financial Daily.
- The country’s big four glove- makers — Supermax, Top Glove Corp Bhd, Hartalega Holdings Bhd and Kossan Rubber Industries have been aggressively expanding their nitrile glove production in recent years. Combined, nitrile glove capacity is projected to grow by 13 billion pieces by the end of this year, up 47% from 37.9 billion pieces currently. The bulk of the capacity expansion is being led by Supermax and Kossan. Supermax alone is more than doubling its nitrile capacity to 12.3 billion pieces by year-end when its two new production lines come online. And Malaysian glove makers are not the only ones expanding, said Thai. Chinese, Thai and Indonesian glove makers are also bumping up capacity to take advantage of the good nitrile glove margins, he added.
- Glove makers with the highest margin and selling price will be the hardest hit, predicts Thai, noting that some of his competitors have booked margins in excess of 20%. “With the increased capacity, customers won’t pay that price anymore. They might pay a small premium but it won’t be as big as before,” he added. Thai, meanwhile, sees Supermax and rival Top Glove being better insulated from an oversupply situation given their wider customer base. “The rest may have a smaller customer base, but their purchases are big. However, these customers can’t keep paying big premiums. “I expect to see these big customers slicing off some of their procurement to other manufacturers,” said Thai.
- “The electricity tariff hike has increased our cost per
1,000 gloves by 15 sen to 30 sen depending on the
grades of the gloves. Compare that to the overall
(production) cost of about RM25 per 1,000 gloves and it
is not that high. “But it still has a negative impact on our bottomline,” said Thai, noting that utility costs which include gas, electricity and water only
accounted for 6% to 7% of total costs.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/highlights/278747-highlight-glove-firms-to-face-margin-squeeze.html (Mar.2014)
- 本地主要膠手套製造業者認為，大馬政府最近將電費大幅度上調16%實是過於激烈，並吁請政府考慮將電費漲幅減半至更為合理的8%水平，因為業者需要一段時間去適應，避免過度加重膠手套行業生產成本與競爭力，從而威脅大馬膠手套行業的競爭力與領導者地位。
- 膠手套業者客戶向來都在要求調低產品價格，甚至是在生產成本節節揚升時刻都是如此。政府在2013年初宣佈推行最低薪金制，已經使業者勞工成本增加30%，如今國家能源將電費上調16%，進一步增加生產本實是不在話下。加上每年通膨率3%至4%，員工成本是持續不斷的攀升。
- 除了電力能源外，膠手套業者的其他經營風險，包括外匯波動及原料成本走高等。若要膠手套業持續成長，政府的政策可說是扮演舉足輕重的角色。
- 目前本地膠手套行業每年的營業額達到約300億令吉，佔據全球膠手套市場逾60%- 林寬城指出，業者採用更好科技工藝，也是維持成長的最佳方法之一，以便與競爭對手——如泰國、印尼及越南等競爭。隨著行業發展與轉變，膠手套行業將不再是勞力密集行業，而轉變為生產自動化及機械化方向前進。
他認為，膠手套業者加強製造科技及操作自動化，將是應付未來挑戰無可避免的趨勢，包括將能源如電力及天然氣及科技效能儘大化，以降低能源的消耗量。
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/91328 Mar.2014
- 目前全球膠手套市場每年需求為1千500億只，其中大馬出口960億只或是63%，成為全球最大的膠手套生產及出口國，而泰國則佔19%及印尼為16%。
- 大馬膠手套在全球市場的優勢，包括獲得政府及相關各行業良好支持、良好的專業及研究與開發（R&D）、良好基建、能源來源具有競爭力、及較易取得生產原料等。
- 大馬膠手套的出口價值逐年增加，即從2007年的58億7千萬令吉，至2012年已倍增至105億令吉。截至2013年9月為止則達79億3千萬令吉，預料全年可達140億令吉。林魁賢指出，預料至2020年的出口總值將達到300億令吉。若以目前全球膠手套需求每年增加6%至8%，預料它的需求將在7年裡翻一番（倍增），未來前景依然可期。
- 林魁賢指出，該行業的生產成本問題，首要為原料成本、兌美元的外匯走勢、電費起價、天然氣價格、消費稅的衝擊及勞工成本等。該行業在建立產能時將面對的問題，包括資本與融資需求、基建與後援需求、操作自動化、重新投資津貼及人力資本的發展等。
- 大馬膠手套行業生產科技不斷改進，如在1998年時，膠手套生產線速度僅為每小時生產3千隻手套，在不斷改進後，目前已經可以做到每小時生產4萬6千隻膠手套。
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/91328 (Mar.2014)
- 该分析员补充说，虽然目前是冬季（传统上是每年的2月至4月），而且中国的汽车生產也显著增长，但是胶乳价格却继续向南走。「胶乳价格按年下挫了26%，同时，年初至今也跌了13%。我们相信这是因为胶乳的供应充足，尤其是来自越南和柬埔寨的供应。这两个国家在2006至2007年期间，积极种植树胶，所以现在是它们的黄金收成期。未来，我们相信来自这两个国家的胶乳生產將继续增加。」
- 胶乳的价格走势对胶手套製造商带来显著的影响，因为它占了总製造成本的56至60%比重。至於中国汽车生產（轮胎）蓬勃发展，也同样会影响胶乳的价格，因为中国汽车业是胶乳最大的消费对象，占全球胶乳產量的70%左右。
http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=104274:4&Itemid=198 Mar.2014
聯昌證券研究指出，縱使市場需求持續增長，但基于本土業者紛紛啟動擴產計劃，不排除產量或跑贏需求的情況，相信削價戰已是必然結果，消費者將有更高議價空間。“汽油、電費與天然氣都漲價，無形中將衝擊業者賺幅，但在供過于求的情況下，要想轉嫁成本予消費並非易事。”聯昌證券研究透露，沒有任何人可避開這場潛在削價戰，為保市佔率各個手套公司勢必將會降價，賀特佳料可良好抵禦衝擊。“對高產柅品來說，產品價格較賀特佳來得便宜，料也能妥善管理潛在降價帶來的衝擊，雖說頂級手套（TOPGLOV，7113，主要板工業）與速柏瑪價格具競爭力，但兩者賺幅偏低，且在生產丁手套方面，仍不及前兩者，所受衝擊料最大。”
http://www.chinapress.com.my/node/507383 Mar.2014
- 该分析员补充说，虽然目前是冬季（传统上是每年的2月至4月），而且中国的汽车生產也显著增长，但是胶乳价格却继续向南走。「胶乳价格按年下挫了26%，同时，年初至今也跌了13%。我们相信这是因为胶乳的供应充足，尤其是来自越南和柬埔寨的供应。这两个国家在2006至2007年期间，积极种植树胶，所以现在是它们的黄金收成期。未来，我们相信来自这两个国家的胶乳生產將继续增加。」
- 胶乳的价格走势对胶手套製造商带来显著的影响，因为它占了总製造成本的56至60%比重。至於中国汽车生產（轮胎）蓬勃发展，也同样会影响胶乳的价格，因为中国汽车业是胶乳最大的消费对象，占全球胶乳產量的70%左右。
http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=104274:4&Itemid=198 Mar.2014
聯昌證券研究指出，縱使市場需求持續增長，但基于本土業者紛紛啟動擴產計劃，不排除產量或跑贏需求的情況，相信削價戰已是必然結果，消費者將有更高議價空間。“汽油、電費與天然氣都漲價，無形中將衝擊業者賺幅，但在供過于求的情況下，要想轉嫁成本予消費並非易事。”聯昌證券研究透露，沒有任何人可避開這場潛在削價戰，為保市佔率各個手套公司勢必將會降價，賀特佳料可良好抵禦衝擊。“對高產柅品來說，產品價格較賀特佳來得便宜，料也能妥善管理潛在降價帶來的衝擊，雖說頂級手套（TOPGLOV，7113，主要板工業）與速柏瑪價格具競爭力，但兩者賺幅偏低，且在生產丁手套方面，仍不及前兩者，所受衝擊料最大。”
http://www.chinapress.com.my/node/507383 Mar.2014
- 根據估計，4大手套上市公司未來4年（2013至2017年）累積產能以複合年均增長率（CAGR）14.3%速度增長，以總產量（丁腈和天然膠手套）來看，賀特佳（HARTA，5168，主板工業產品組）和速柏瑪（SUPERMX,7106,主板工業產品組）擴張策略最為積極，複合年均增長率達22%。
相比之下，高產尼品（KOSSAN,7153,主板工業產品組）未來4年複合年均增長率為17%，而頂級手套（TOPGLOV,7113,主板工業產品組）以5.8%產能複合年均增長率墊底。
- 聯昌研究補充，市場研究預測未來4年橡膠手套需求僅將年增6%，增速遠比產能擴張的14%為低，相信供過於求將是領域潛在問題。“我們預期人造膠手套需求僅年增11至13%，或4年複合年均增長12%，遠低於4大手套生產商丁腈手套產能4年複合年均增長29%水平。” 該證券行說，4大手套生產商丁腈手套總產量料佔今年全球需求的56%，以大馬現供應全球63%橡膠手套水平來看仍相對合理，但從2015年起，領域可能因產量過剩出現更為激烈的競爭。“基於潛在產能過剩，我們相信售價將承受更大壓力，因客戶現比生產商擁有更高的議價能力。我們發現一位生產商已開始減價來重贏客戶的心，而部份生產商也開始削價搶市，都將使售價面對更多壓力。”
- 聯昌研究指出，手套生產商雖可透過成本轉嫁消費者相抵，但隨著領域開始面對售價壓力，生產商需權衡賺益壓力和來自泰國業者的激烈競爭，下一輪的成本轉嫁將變得日趨艱難。
“同時，2005至2008年龐大種植規模將確保未來數年供應無虞，相信膠乳價格將持續維持低位，但以丁二烯（Butadiene）和丙烯清（Acrylonitrile）為原料的丁腈價格，卻可能隨美國頁岩氣開發釋出更廉價的乙烷（Ethane），促使生產商轉向更廉宜的乙烷，進而壓縮石腦油（Naphtha）生產商賺益，令丁二烯（Butadiene）產量大減而面對漲價風險。”
He points out that China’s per capita consumption of glove is 4-10 pieces per capita, compared to the United States where per capita consumption is 140 pieces, suggesting a huge potential exists in the world’s most populous country. “Hypothetically, if China’s per capita consumption of gloves reaches a level that is similar to the US, it will have a market size of 180 billion pieces per annum, more than the current global glove market size of 150 billion pieces per annum (of which 40% is nitrile).”
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/03/15/Hartalega-presses-on-Competition-to-be-intense-as-market-innovates/ Mar.2014
http://www.nanyang.com/node/609340?tid=462 Mar.2014
- The Government has approved Gas Malaysia’s natural gas
tariff revision for the non-power sector in Peninsular Malaysia,
effective 1 May 2014. Average natural gas tariff will increase
from RM16.07/MMBtu to RM19.32/MMBtu (+20.2%).
- Generally, natural gas made up about 6% of rubber glove players’ overall cost base. We understand from the key industry players that the increase of the natural gas tariff revision is around 18%. Based on natural gas contribution of 6% to total cost, this will raise cost of production by 1.1% (18% of 6%).
- Also, Malaysia has graduated from the preferential tax treatment from EU. This implies that Malaysian glove exporters face 2-6% increase in tax from EU.
- The neutralisation factor for the players is the current softening in latex costs despite wintering season, which has fallen to RM4.83/kg.
(HongLeong Research April.2014)
- Generally, natural gas made up about 6% of rubber glove players’ overall cost base. We understand from the key industry players that the increase of the natural gas tariff revision is around 18%. Based on natural gas contribution of 6% to total cost, this will raise cost of production by 1.1% (18% of 6%).
- Also, Malaysia has graduated from the preferential tax treatment from EU. This implies that Malaysian glove exporters face 2-6% increase in tax from EU.
- The neutralisation factor for the players is the current softening in latex costs despite wintering season, which has fallen to RM4.83/kg.
(HongLeong Research April.2014)
- 大马气体（GasMsia，5209，主板贸服股）宣布获准让天然气涨价，5月1日起生效，平均涨幅是在20%，这消息导致手套股股价应声下滑。 肯纳格研究分析员指出，假设手套业者没有將天然气涨价带来的额外成本转嫁给消费者，这些手套股的盈利將会减少1-3%。然而，从过去的电费及天然气价格上调的经验看来，业者都会將额外的成本转嫁给客户，因此，分析员对这次的天然气价格上调的影响，並不感到担忧。达证券分析员认为，涨价提议会直接影响所有国內的手套製造商，成本转嫁的比重尚未確定，保守估计厂家会把80%的成本转嫁至客户。
- 达证券则指出，在没有成本转嫁情况下，分析员预计顶级手套会受到最大影响，净利料下滑12.2%。而贺特佳將受到最小幅度影响，净利下滑4.6%。另外，高產尼品和速柏玛的净利则预计將分別下调10.6%和10.8%。
- 艾芬投行分析员则指出，业者需要將平均销售价上调3-5%，才可抵消电力成本提高的影响。艾芬投行分析员预期，顶级手套將是当中受影响最大的股项，这主要是因为，该股更高的產量，將会需要更多的能源。丰隆投行分析员则认为，以目前供需平衡情况而言，生產低档手套的业者要將成本转嫁出去，有一定的难度。
http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=111433:&Itemid=198 April.2014
投資者對手套業者產能過度擴張的問題感到憂慮, 馬銀行研究認為，目前的價格競爭也只不過是暫時性的，當部份業內新產能被佔用後，平均售價將會回揚，況且若手套的需求並不旺盛，業內的擴充計劃仍可縮減。“手套產能過剩的問題每隔2至3年就會發生，並在初期階段引起價格競爭，但卻不曾導致市場應利急劇下挫的現象發生。” “我們認為產能只會是逐步擴充，因業者會緊密觀察需求變化，並在需求低於預期的時候將產能擴充腳步放緩。”
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/93564?tid=18 April.2014
- 丁腈手套銷情旺盛，手套業者一窩蜂擴充產能，分析員憂慮新增需求恐難消化所有新鮮供應，業者可能需要削價求存，手套削價戰料一觸即發。聯昌研究表示，丁腈手套需求旺盛，而天然膠手套需求開始放緩，促使國內手套業者開始提高丁腈手套產能，以在高速增長的市場中維持和攫取更大的市佔率。
- 根據估計，4大手套上市公司未來4年（2013至2017年）累積產能以複合年均增長率（CAGR）14.3%速度增長，以總產量（丁腈和天然膠手套）來看，賀特佳（HARTA,5168,主板工業產品組）和速柏瑪（SUPERMX,7106,主板工業產品組）擴張策略最為積極，複合年均增長率達22%. 相比之下，高產尼品（KOSSAN,7153,主板工業產品組）未來4年複合年均增長率為17%，而頂級手套（TOPGLOV,7113,主板工業產品組）以5.8%產能複合年均增長率墊底。
- 基於敏感憂慮，近年來丁腈手套需求增速超越天然膠手套，但聯昌研究相信丁腈手套需求將持續增長，但隨著多數發達市場已完成從天然膠過渡至丁腈手套的階段，相信過往平均增長30%的增速將難以為繼。
- “我們預期人造膠手套需求僅年增11至13%，或4年複合年均增長12%，遠低於4大手套生產商丁腈手套產能4年複合年均增長29%水平。該證券行說，4大手套生產商丁腈手套總產量料佔今年全球需求的56%，以大馬現供應全球63%橡膠手套水平來看仍相對合理，但從2015年起，領域可能因產量過剩出現更為激烈的競爭。
- “基於潛在產能過剩，我們相信售價將承受更大壓力，因客戶現比生產商擁有更高的議價能力。我們發現一位生產商已開始減價來重贏客戶的心，而部份生產商也開始削價搶市，都將使售價面對更多壓力。”
- 但興業研究預測，2014年新增丁腈手套達141億隻，將可由新增138億隻需求消化，以20%需求增長來看，相信產能過剩問題並不足為慮，因多數新增產量將可被需求消化。
- 政府在去年杪上調電費，加上政府可能在短期內提高天然氣價格，橡膠手套也將面對更高的營運成本考驗. 聯昌研究指出，手套生產商雖可透過成本轉嫁消費者相抵，但隨著領域開始面對售價壓力，生產商需權衡賺益壓力和來自泰國業者的激烈競爭，下一輪的成本轉嫁將變得日趨艱難。
- “同時，2005至2008年龐大種植規模將確保未來數年供應無虞，相信膠乳價格將持續維持低位，但以丁二烯（Butadiene）和丙烯清（Acrylonitrile）為原料的丁腈價格，卻可能隨美國頁岩氣開發釋出更廉價的乙烷（Ethane），促使生產商轉向更廉宜的乙烷，進而壓縮石腦油（Naphtha）生產商賺益，令丁二烯（Butadiene）產量大減而面對漲價風險。”
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/91668?tid=6 Mar.2014
券商认为，市场早前关注的产能过剩，有点言过其实，因手套业者已放缓增产，并相信手套领域可复苏，股价甚至可在未来数季跑赢大市。年初迄今，大马四大手套股的股价表现皆不尽理想，领跌的是顶级手套（TOPGLOV，7113，主板工业产品股），共挫13%。紧接着的是速柏玛（SUPERMX，7106，主板工业产品股）、贺特佳（HARTA，5168，主板工业产品股）和高产尼品工业（KOSSAN，7153，主板工业产品股），分别滑落11%、10%和9%。不过，肯纳格研究分析员并不担忧，因为新产能扩展活动比预期缓慢，将有助于维持供需平衡，打消市场认为供应过剩的疑虑。
http://www.nanyang.com/node/609340?tid=462 Mar.2014
政府批准大馬天然氣（GASMSIA，5209，主要板貿易）在5月1日起，調漲半島非能源工業天然氣價格，平均價格從每百萬熱能單位（mmbtu）16.07令吉，上漲20%至19.32令吉。興業證券研究分析報告指出，相信這不會重大衝擊手套業者，因為生產手套的能源成本僅占總成本的5%至6%，業者可容易把該成本轉移給消費者。
http://www.chinapress.com.my/node/517349 April.2014
An analyst with Alliance Research Sdn Bhd (Alliance Research) was generally unconcerned from this piece of news as he anticipated glovemakers to be able to pass on the cost increase to their customers, thanks to their dominance in the global glove market.
“In any case, we believe the negative impact will be short lived due to time lag on cost pass through as glove makers normally take one to one and a half months to adjust their product pricing based on the latest input cost structure.
http://www.theborneopost.com/2014/04/15/mixed-opinions-on-gas-hikes-impact-to-rubber-gloves/#ixzz2ywVyNaap April.2014
顶级手套和贺特佳早前股价面对卖压，分別跌至2年和8个月最低。年初至今，贺特佳股价总共下滑了12%，至6.35令吉，而顶级手套也下滑17%，至4.76令吉，跌势是由原料成本下滑拖低手套平均售价引起。天然胶乳价格年初至今，从每公斤5.31令吉下滑了15%，至4.51令吉。丁月青胶乳价格跌幅更大，从每公吨1445美元下滑6%，至1355美元。因此，为了保持收入赚幅，生產商需提高產量，但是对於顶级手套来说，若面对客户要求不合理的价格水平，他们会拒绝订单，这导致该公司在2014財政年末季的產量按季下滑8.5%。
http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=114765:3&Itemid=198 May.2014
政府在2012年5月宣佈將在西馬落實900令吉最低薪金制，東馬則落實800令吉最低薪酬，這導致手套業勞工成本上漲2至3%，佔總成本10至12%。此外，國家薪資諮詢委員會（NWCC）在2011年擬定的法令，也闡明最低薪金將每兩年檢討，人力資源副部長拿督依斯邁爾也說，最低薪金應在今年內重新檢討，並且在明年落實。
政府去年12月宣佈調漲半島電費15%，商業和工業用戶更平均須承擔16.85%的電費增幅，手套業者在這項宣佈後不久，即調高平均手套售價1%，大馬手套製造商協會估計，電費漲價導致每1千隻手套生產成本上漲64仙至1令吉93仙之間。無論如何，大馬研究表示，並非所有手套製造商均調高售價，一些業者決定吸納額外成本，使手套更具競爭力，這情況令那些已經調漲平均售價的業者面對壓力。
國內天然氣售價自今年5月開始上漲19%，手套製造商原本需為每平方立米天然氣繳付16令吉零7仙成本，如今必須繳付19令吉18仙，雖然這項宣佈符合預期，惟考量漲價宣佈與正式落實之間只有2週緩衝期，因此預見製造商營運成本將在未來數季內上漲。
雖然一些業者有信心立即展開成本轉嫁，如賀特佳（HARTA，5168，主板工業產品組）調高平均售價2%，但其他業者，包括頂級手套（TOPGLOV，7113，主板工業產品組），卻採取更謹慎的態度，可能得用2至3個月時間來進行成本轉嫁。
大馬研究補充，丁腈與膠手套平均售價雙雙下滑，顯示訂價能力如今重新回到買家手上，尤其是膠手套，因新入行業者願意接受更低賺幅，以擴大市佔率。“丁腈手套方面，平均售價下滑則主要因業者需要將產能使用率保持在一定水平，因此將產品標上更低售價，以吸引市場買氣，惟這自然導致賺幅受壓。”不過，該行認為平均售價下滑也可能歸咎於原料價明顯下滑。大馬研究說，丁腈和乳膠價格今年以來分別下滑16%和3%，主要因市場憂慮中國供應過剩和經濟放緩可能影響需求。
另外，根據各手套業者管理層的披露，大馬研究認為手套業產能確實可能在未來兩年出現過剩現象，但表示不會對這現象感到過份憂慮，主要因整體產能使用率依然高企，且一些業者已放慢產能擴張計劃。
分析员指出，虽然乳胶成本走低对手套业者有利，但仍面对令吉走强、需求放缓，以及电力和天然气价格上涨的压力，下半年处境存忧。除了高产尼品工业（KOSSAN，7153，主板工业产品股），手套业者的首季财报令人大失所望，归咎于销量疲弱和赚幅压缩。安联星展投资研究指出，国内四大业者的首季销量，按年跌4%、按季跌3%，相较之下，最大的竞争对手泰国森佩美（Sempermed）则取得双位数增长。不仅如此，非大马手套生产商来势汹汹，若这些业者成功收窄大马业者在生产技术和规模的优势，该行不排除下调该领域前景。
http://www.nanyang.com/node/628818?tid=462 June.2014
大马胶手套製造商公会会长林魁贤指出，全球手套需求预测每年增长8%至10%，所以大马手套公司扩大產能，並不会出现供应过剩的情况，並且可维持大马手套业者在国际的领导地位。目前大马为全球最大的手套供应国，市占率估计为58%，该公会冀望在2020年大马的市佔率可提升至65%。
针对供应过剩课题，4大手套公司皆认为，积极扩大產能，並不会造成供应过剩的情况。当中，林伟才表示，额外的產能主要是应付不断增长的手套需求。另外，关民亮也补充说道，全球的手套市场依然具发展潜能。他举例，目前全球仅有19%的人口使用手套，未来的成长空间庞大。此外，对比每人在每年使用的手套情况，美国和欧洲，分別为149只及100只，而亚洲仅为8只，依然具发展潜能。
郑金森则也指出，隨著人们的生活水平提升，也將会提高手套的需求。加上，中国一些乙烯手套（vinyl gloves）厂房关闭，市场的需求相信將会转向丁?及胶乳手套。此外，林宽城也表示，除了医疗服务领域对手套需求提升之外，其他如食品、工业、美容等领域，对手套的需求也將增加，这些新的需求將可吸纳增加的手套產能。
与此同时，4大手套公司也一致认为，大马手套领域將进入转型阶段，朝自动化前进。对此，关民亮表示，通过提升生產程序自动化，可降低劳工成本及提高生產效率，有助於提高业者在国际间的竞爭力。虽然如此，林伟才也指出，手套出口的增长幅度可能不如从前，主要是高基数效应，若以出口量而言，是一直持续成长中
另一方面，大马胶手套製造商公会也列出了行业未来的6大挑战，分別有：一，MyEG旗下Bestinet的外劳登记服务收费；二，技术员工短缺；三，最低薪金制度；四，电费及天然气费用提升；五，消费税；六，水源供应短缺。手套业者均希望，政府可给予基建设施方面的援助，以推动手套领域的发展。
http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php/business/cj2015291 Feb.2015 - FY2015
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