- YTL Cement Bhd
- Tasek Corp Bhd
- CIMA Group
- Malayan Lafarge Cement Bbhd
- CMS Cement Sdn Bhd
- Holcim Malaysia Sdn Bhd
Current listed prices for cement are RM16.75 per 50kg bag and RM335 per tonne.
(1 tonne = 1000kg)
Friday, August 10, 2012
Malaysia cement player
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
Maybulk
Maybulk will receive two new vessels by the end of this year, and another two by next year. it will have 19 vessels pin 2013, with 15 for dry bulk. The average age of its vessels is 8.8 years, but it will reduced to 5.9 years once the company receives all its new vessels this year and in 2013.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/213444-maybulk-to-scale-back-dividends-buy-new-vessels.html
Dividends
Dividend payments over the five-year period until 2011 have been on a downtrend, except in 2008 when the payout ratio was higher than in 2007. In 2007, the group's dividend payout ratio was at 70%, and later increased to 83% in 2008, before it went down to 62% for 2009, 42% for 2010 and 33% for 2011.
ttp://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/213444-maybulk-to-scale-back-dividends-buy-new-vessels.html
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/213444-maybulk-to-scale-back-dividends-buy-new-vessels.html
Dividends
Dividend payments over the five-year period until 2011 have been on a downtrend, except in 2008 when the payout ratio was higher than in 2007. In 2007, the group's dividend payout ratio was at 70%, and later increased to 83% in 2008, before it went down to 62% for 2009, 42% for 2010 and 33% for 2011.
ttp://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/213444-maybulk-to-scale-back-dividends-buy-new-vessels.html
Sunday, August 5, 2012
运输业
利好条件：
- stable oil prices
不利条件：
- vessels over capacity (loose financing pre-subprime crisis 2008 and over optimistic leads to ordered more fleets than were actually required)
++ As at end of June, another huge wave of fleet deliveries at 58.8 million deadweight tonnes (dwt) that reflected an increase of 14.8% year-on-year was recorded.
++ MIDF Research said during the first half of the year, the two smaller types of vessel namely Handysize and Supramax earned better charter rates than the other two larger types, Panamax and Capesize, mainly due to different growth rate of fleet size.It said the Panamax and Capesize bulk carriers experienced burgeoning fleet size as it recorded fleet growth of 22.2% year-on-year and 20.4% year-on-year respectively. In comparison, the Handysize and Supramax posted fleet growth of -2.3% year-on-year and 15% year-on-year respectively as at June.
http://thestar.com.my/maritime/story.asp?file=/2012/7/23/maritime/11703508&sec=maritime
++ Analyst said delivery of new vessels this year will reach around 103 million dwt, which constitute about 65% of the total industry order book.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/213444-maybulk-to-scale-back-dividends-buy-new-vessels.html
- dry bulk freight rate under pressure
++ Maybulk average daily time charter equivalent rates earned by its fleet fell to US$15,737 per day, from 2010's US$22,846 per day.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/213444-maybulk-to-scale-back-dividends-buy-new-vessels.html
- slowdown of China,India economies which contribute most of the bulk carriers demand (iron ore, coal, grain,sand,gravel,fertilizer,steel,lumber,agricultural products etc), can also leads to vessels over capacity
什么运输公司可投资？
- 握有足够现金的，可攻可守。攻可以趁运输船低价时收购，守可以在公司出现负现金流或亏损时熬过风暴。
- 信誉好的公司，在风暴时仍可以获得银行贷款。
Signal to look for?
- successfully secure bank loan during this hard period to expand vessels, take over competitors with financial trouble
- vessels supply dwt start to come down
- scale back dividends to buy new vessels when price is low (Maybulk)
++ According to a report by RS Platou, which tracks the shipping industry, the price of new building capsize dry bulk carriers in April 2011 is about US$48 million, down from almost US$100 million in 2008/09.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/213444-maybulk-to-scale-back-dividends-buy-new-vessels.html
What can affect shipping industry?
- changes in exploration or production of energy resources
- location of production/exploration sites
- location of consuming regions
- development in international trade
- changes in transportation patterns
- currency rates (appreciation of currency improve purchasing power)
Shortlisted companies:
BDI Index
The Baltic Dry Index (replaces the Baltic Freight Index): A composite of the Baltic Capesize, Panamax, Handysize and Supramax indices. The index is designed as the successor to the Baltic Freight Index and was first published on January 4 1985 at 1000 points.Last day of trading yr - Christmas Eve
- stable oil prices
- shipping companies scrap vessels due to operating costs higher than profit
不利条件：
- vessels over capacity (loose financing pre-subprime crisis 2008 and over optimistic leads to ordered more fleets than were actually required)
++ As at end of June, another huge wave of fleet deliveries at 58.8 million deadweight tonnes (dwt) that reflected an increase of 14.8% year-on-year was recorded.
++ MIDF Research said during the first half of the year, the two smaller types of vessel namely Handysize and Supramax earned better charter rates than the other two larger types, Panamax and Capesize, mainly due to different growth rate of fleet size.It said the Panamax and Capesize bulk carriers experienced burgeoning fleet size as it recorded fleet growth of 22.2% year-on-year and 20.4% year-on-year respectively. In comparison, the Handysize and Supramax posted fleet growth of -2.3% year-on-year and 15% year-on-year respectively as at June.
http://thestar.com.my/maritime/story.asp?file=/2012/7/23/maritime/11703508&sec=maritime
++ Analyst said delivery of new vessels this year will reach around 103 million dwt, which constitute about 65% of the total industry order book.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/213444-maybulk-to-scale-back-dividends-buy-new-vessels.html
- dry bulk freight rate under pressure
++ Maybulk average daily time charter equivalent rates earned by its fleet fell to US$15,737 per day, from 2010's US$22,846 per day.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/213444-maybulk-to-scale-back-dividends-buy-new-vessels.html
- slowdown of China,India economies which contribute most of the bulk carriers demand (iron ore, coal, grain,sand,gravel,fertilizer,steel,lumber,agricultural products etc), can also leads to vessels over capacity
什么运输公司可投资？
- 握有足够现金的，可攻可守。攻可以趁运输船低价时收购，守可以在公司出现负现金流或亏损时熬过风暴。
- 信誉好的公司，在风暴时仍可以获得银行贷款。
Signal to look for?
- successfully secure bank loan during this hard period to expand vessels, take over competitors with financial trouble
- vessels supply dwt start to come down
- scale back dividends to buy new vessels when price is low (Maybulk)
++ According to a report by RS Platou, which tracks the shipping industry, the price of new building capsize dry bulk carriers in April 2011 is about US$48 million, down from almost US$100 million in 2008/09.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/213444-maybulk-to-scale-back-dividends-buy-new-vessels.html
What can affect shipping industry?
- changes in exploration or production of energy resources
- location of production/exploration sites
- location of consuming regions
- development in international trade
- changes in transportation patterns
- currency rates (appreciation of currency improve purchasing power)
Shortlisted companies:
- Maybulk (Bursa Malaysia)
- DSX - Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE)
- Cosco Group (SGX)
BDI Index
The Baltic Dry Index (replaces the Baltic Freight Index): A composite of the Baltic Capesize, Panamax, Handysize and Supramax indices. The index is designed as the successor to the Baltic Freight Index and was first published on January 4 1985 at 1000 points.Last day of trading yr - Christmas Eve
Reference links:
| Ship Classification | Dead Weight Tons | % of World Fleet | % of Dry Bulk Traffic[3] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capesize | 100,000+ | 10% | 62% |
| Panamax | 60,000-80,000 | 19% | 20% |
| Supramax | 45,000-59,000 | 37% | 18% w/ Handysize |
| Handysize | 15,000-35,000 | 34% | 18% w/ Supramax[ |
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
我应该在什么价位买进呢？
在买进股票做投资时，很多人很多时候都会有这样的疑问。
“我应该在什么价位买进呢？”
我们这里撇开股市风暴时的价位不谈，因为历史不断重复的告诉我们这时的优质股票绝对是最值得购买的。那么在一个不牛不熊的市况下，你又可以用什么策略去衡量股票的价值呢？
市场上常用的方法包括：
Earnings/Price ratio，很多投资者都懂得PE,但就比较少人用EP来衡量股价。这个ratio其实很好用，也可以让你简单快速的filter某只股值不值得购买。
举个例子，现在ABC股价是$10,EPS(Earnings per share)是$1.00。我们拿($10/$1.00) x 100% = 10%，那么假如我们现在买下ABC股，它的回酬是10％，以银行的定存大约4％做一个benchmark和把购买股票的风险考量在内，我们知道还是有利 可图的。
Free cash flow/Enterprise value ratio, 是这篇文章的重点，也是衡量股价时最有参考价值的。很多人都说Annual Report的可信度有限，比较象是老板拿来哄骗小股东的故事书，当然这也不是没有道理的。公司可以用多不胜数的方法把账目美化(这里指的不是做假账哦， 只是合法的美化账目），但是有一part比较难作假的就是现金流cashflow，所以这个数据是比较可靠的。而且说穿了，我们投资一间公司还不是希望它 能年年为我们赚大钱，不断创造现金流，有了现金，公司就可以扩大生产，收购公司，回购股票等等行动来回馈股东。这里为什么要用free cash flow呢？因为我们要尽可能避开一些虽然创造现金流很强，但是却需要不断再投入大量现金来维持运作的公司。
Free cash flow/EV ratio的计算方法是：
2）不要比较处于不同行业的公司ratio，因为生意性质不同，通常没有多大的意义。所以要比较，就要拿相同行业或生意性质接近的公司来比较。
“我应该在什么价位买进呢？”
我们这里撇开股市风暴时的价位不谈，因为历史不断重复的告诉我们这时的优质股票绝对是最值得购买的。那么在一个不牛不熊的市况下，你又可以用什么策略去衡量股票的价值呢？
市场上常用的方法包括：
- Price/Sales ratio
- Price/Book value ratio
- Price/Earnings ratio
- Earnings/Price ratio
- Free cash flow/Enterprise value
顾名思义，Price/Sales ratio就是Price(股价）/Sales(销售额）。Price/Sales ratio基本上没有太大的意义，原因在于不管一家公司的销售规模多庞大，销售成长如何可观，假如公司是不赚钱的那么长远绝对无法为股东创造价值。勉强要 讲，一间公司的reported sales会比较“干净”，因为通常公司喜欢做手脚在reported earnings,相比之下sales就比较难。所以我们可以参考以下公司近几年的股价有没有随着营业额上升。
Price/Book ratio的计算方法是拿Price(股价）/Total Tangible Assets - Intangible Assets - Liabilities。假如你有读过Benjamin Graham的著作，那么你一定懂他是使用Price/Book value的佼佼者。Price/Book ratio比较适用于Capital intensive的公司，因为这种公司的现金通常都投资在有形资产上例如机械工厂等等，有形资产就有如他们的命根。对于service industry,比较着重与intangible assets的企业来讲，比较Price/Book基本上毫无意义，因为他们最宝贵的资产可能是公司的品牌，庞大的客户群，公司的精英等等。当然，Price/Book ratio还是有它的用处和重要性，例如一间公司要收购另一家公司，Book value就能提供一个很好的参考价格，因为每间公司衡量Goodwill可能有所出入，所以最实际最简单的就是看你付出的价钱可以换会多少的净资产。除 此之外，Price/Book ratio也没太大的意义，因为通常在一间公司解散的情况下股东才能分到资产，当然一间好的公司你不希望看到这种情形发生。
Price/Earnings ratio是大家都熟悉的，就是说你以现在的股价购入，以公司目前的赚钱能力需要多少 年回本。你可以拿公司的PE和其他同业的平均PE来做个比较，看看有没有超出太多。PE的计算虽然简单，但是我们都没有把公司的成长率，风险，现金流等等 计算在内，所以可靠度有限，做个参考还可以。而且通常低PE的公司都有它的问题存在，高PE的公司也可能是它有比竞争者独特之初。（通常，不是一定）。
Earnings/Price ratio，很多投资者都懂得PE,但就比较少人用EP来衡量股价。这个ratio其实很好用，也可以让你简单快速的filter某只股值不值得购买。
举个例子，现在ABC股价是$10,EPS(Earnings per share)是$1.00。我们拿($10/$1.00) x 100% = 10%，那么假如我们现在买下ABC股，它的回酬是10％，以银行的定存大约4％做一个benchmark和把购买股票的风险考量在内，我们知道还是有利 可图的。
Free cash flow/Enterprise value ratio, 是这篇文章的重点，也是衡量股价时最有参考价值的。很多人都说Annual Report的可信度有限，比较象是老板拿来哄骗小股东的故事书，当然这也不是没有道理的。公司可以用多不胜数的方法把账目美化(这里指的不是做假账哦， 只是合法的美化账目），但是有一part比较难作假的就是现金流cashflow，所以这个数据是比较可靠的。而且说穿了，我们投资一间公司还不是希望它 能年年为我们赚大钱，不断创造现金流，有了现金，公司就可以扩大生产，收购公司，回购股票等等行动来回馈股东。这里为什么要用free cash flow呢？因为我们要尽可能避开一些虽然创造现金流很强，但是却需要不断再投入大量现金来维持运作的公司。
Free cash flow/EV ratio的计算方法是：
Step 1: Free cash flow = Cash generating from operating activities - Cash used in investing activities
Step 2: Enterprise value = Stock's market capitalization + Long term debts - Cash
Step 3: Free cash flow/EV ratio= Free cash flow / Enterprise value
需要注意的是：
2）不要比较处于不同行业的公司ratio，因为生意性质不同，通常没有多大的意义。所以要比较，就要拿相同行业或生意性质接近的公司来比较。
Sunday, January 15, 2012
KAWAN佳源食品，2012年绝地反弹？
建立在以下的数据上，KAWAN佳源食品，将会是一个好的短期投资。
1. 美元将因欧洲债务危机的资金撤出，而迎来短期的上升趋势。这对KAWAN有什么影响？
KAWAN的海外销售约占60％比重，其中美国就占了1/3。从2011年首9个月的销售情况看来，KAWAN的国内销售取得良好成长，弥补了海外销售下滑。美元上升有助KAWAN改善海外销售额（兑换率有助提升销售额），假如原料价格持续放缓，净利自然获得提升。
2. 单纯看KAWAN的ratio，财务状况良好，处于净现金部位和低借贷，即使欧债风暴来临，有能力熬过甚至继续扩充。
从数据看来，管理层效率不差。美中不足的是，公司2005年才上市，可追溯的历史数据并不多。
3. 厂房的使用率已达饱和，公司正透过购地建新厂来满足产量短缺问题，这说明了KAWAN在接下来几年还有成长空间。
第三间厂房扩充“Kawan Food buys land in Pulau Indah”
想要了解多一点，可以看看资汇156期的报导。
再来看看KAWAN过去一年的股价，自一年前至今已调整了大约50％。
公司2011年至第3季的报告显示EPS达7.38sen，我们就假设全年的EPS是10sen。
(RM0.10 x 100) / 8 = RM1.25 (投资RM1.25年利率8％，你的回酬是RM0.10)，本意比大约10倍，那么看来现在的价位还蛮便宜的，况且2011年的EPS是处在低潮期的，成长空间可期。
公司的简介：
Kawan Food Berhad (KFB) is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, KFB is engaged mainly in the manufacturing and sale of frozen food products. Its products include spring roll pastries, wanton and dumpling pastries, glutinous rice balls, stuffed pancakes, rolls, buns and loaves, pita breads, frieds, wedges and veggies, sauces, curries and mantou, among others. KFB distributes its products within the domestic market and to overseas markets, including the Rest of Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania and Africa.
http://www.kawanfood.com/home.html
1. 美元将因欧洲债务危机的资金撤出，而迎来短期的上升趋势。这对KAWAN有什么影响？
KAWAN的海外销售约占60％比重，其中美国就占了1/3。从2011年首9个月的销售情况看来，KAWAN的国内销售取得良好成长，弥补了海外销售下滑。美元上升有助KAWAN改善海外销售额（兑换率有助提升销售额），假如原料价格持续放缓，净利自然获得提升。
2. 单纯看KAWAN的ratio，财务状况良好，处于净现金部位和低借贷，即使欧债风暴来临，有能力熬过甚至继续扩充。
从数据看来，管理层效率不差。美中不足的是，公司2005年才上市，可追溯的历史数据并不多。
3. 厂房的使用率已达饱和，公司正透过购地建新厂来满足产量短缺问题，这说明了KAWAN在接下来几年还有成长空间。
第三间厂房扩充“Kawan Food buys land in Pulau Indah”
想要了解多一点，可以看看资汇156期的报导。
再来看看KAWAN过去一年的股价，自一年前至今已调整了大约50％。
公司2011年至第3季的报告显示EPS达7.38sen，我们就假设全年的EPS是10sen。
(RM0.10 x 100) / 8 = RM1.25 (投资RM1.25年利率8％，你的回酬是RM0.10)，本意比大约10倍，那么看来现在的价位还蛮便宜的，况且2011年的EPS是处在低潮期的，成长空间可期。
公司的简介：
Kawan Food Berhad (KFB) is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, KFB is engaged mainly in the manufacturing and sale of frozen food products. Its products include spring roll pastries, wanton and dumpling pastries, glutinous rice balls, stuffed pancakes, rolls, buns and loaves, pita breads, frieds, wedges and veggies, sauces, curries and mantou, among others. KFB distributes its products within the domestic market and to overseas markets, including the Rest of Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania and Africa.
http://www.kawanfood.com/home.html
Friday, January 13, 2012
手套股2012年头小涨潮
最近，手套公司纷纷在年度大会和EGM上发表了对2012年的乐观展望。其中，TopGlove更放话有信心取得30％的净利成长和在年尾达到30％的市占率。
手套公司的乐观展望是建立自去年不断下调的乳胶价格（乳胶占了大约60％－70％的成本），和最近因欧债问题升值的美元，而大幅的营业额和净利成长则建立在去年的低迷期。
根据Malaysian Rubber Board的资料，乳胶价格已经从2011年2月的高峰RM10.60/kg下滑至2012年1月的RM6.30/kg。
Source: http://www3.lgm.gov.my/mre/YearlyAvg.aspx
看看以下的图表，同时期的美元也从2011年2月的3.05逐步升值至3.15。
Source: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDMYR=X&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
OSK分析员认为乳胶还有下调的空间，因为最大的生产国泰国不久前宣布把hard rubber的价格cap在USD3/kg(RM9.45)。这表示乳胶的低价大约是RM5.67 (hard rubber的成分60％乳胶和40％水份）。
手套公司的乐观展望是建立自去年不断下调的乳胶价格（乳胶占了大约60％－70％的成本），和最近因欧债问题升值的美元，而大幅的营业额和净利成长则建立在去年的低迷期。
根据Malaysian Rubber Board的资料，乳胶价格已经从2011年2月的高峰RM10.60/kg下滑至2012年1月的RM6.30/kg。
Source: http://www3.lgm.gov.my/mre/YearlyAvg.aspx
看看以下的图表，同时期的美元也从2011年2月的3.05逐步升值至3.15。
Source: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDMYR=X&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
OSK分析员认为乳胶还有下调的空间，因为最大的生产国泰国不久前宣布把hard rubber的价格cap在USD3/kg(RM9.45)。这表示乳胶的低价大约是RM5.67 (hard rubber的成分60％乳胶和40％水份）。
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